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1 Artificial Intelligence Stock That Could Crush the Market

By Trevor Jennewine - Jun 8, 2021 at 10:00AM

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NVIDIA has already been a millionaire-maker investment, but the future still looks bright.

Most stock pickers have one goal: to beat the market. Since January 2015, the S&P 500 has returned an average 13% per year, or 110% total. That's not bad, but it pales in comparison to NVIDIA's (NVDA -2.88%) 3,410% return over the same period.

Given the chipmaker's $438 billion market cap, investors may think it's too late to buy this stock. But NVIDIA recently delivered strong first-quarter results, reminding Wall Street that it's still a growth company. In fact, I think NVIDIA will continue to outperform the market over the next five years. Here's why.

High-performance computing

NVIDIA is a leading provider of graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI solutions. Its brand name has become synonymous with high-performance computing, which has translated into strong demand from both gamers and data center customers.

AI semiconductor glowing blue.

Image source: Getty Images.

In 2020, NVIDIA launched its latest data center GPU: Ampere. This new architecture accelerates AI workloads up to twentyfold compared to its predecessor. Not surprisingly, NVIDIA crushed the competition at the most recent MLPerf benchmarks, a series of trials designed to evaluate the training and inference performance of AI computing platforms.

Last year, NVIDIA also launched its latest lineup of GeForce RTX GPUs for gamers. These chips, which are also built on Ampere architecture, fuse real-time ray tracing and artificial intelligence to create ultra-realistic video game graphics.

A strong first quarter

NVIDIA recently delivered another strong quarter, beating Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The chipmaker's revenue surged 84% to $5.7 billion, and earnings grew even faster, soaring 106% to $3.03 per diluted share.

As expected, NVIDIA's data center and gaming businesses were the key growth engines in Q1, with sales rising 79% and 106%, respectively. Notably, CEO Jensen Huang attributed the success in the data center segment to strong demand for NVIDIA AI solutions. Huang also noted widespread adoption of NVIDIA RTX GPUs across gaming and design markets.

Despite this impressive performance, investors should always consider the big picture. In this case, NVIDIA's long-term performance has been stellar.

Metric

2018

Q1 2022 (TTM)

CAGR

Revenue

$9.7 billion

$19.3 billion

24%

Earnings per share

$4.82

$8.45

19%

Data source: NVIDIA SEC filings. Note: Q1 fiscal 2022 ended May 2, 2021. TTM = trailing 12 months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.

A bright future

NVIDIA's leadership extends across industries. In PC gaming, the company generates three times more revenue than the next closest competitor. In workstation graphics and supercomputing, NVIDIA has over 90% market share. And in autonomous vehicles, Navigant has recognized the NVIDIA DRIVE computing platform as the market leader.

Here's why that matters: NVIDIA puts its total addressable market (TAM) in the data center at $100 billion by 2024, and its TAM in autonomous vehicles at $25 billion by 2025. As the clear leader in both industries, the company is well positioned to capture the lion's share of that cash flow.

So, how big could NVIDIA be in five years? The stock currently trades at 23 times sales. If NVIDIA continues to grow revenue at 24% per year (as it has since 2018), the stock price could nearly triple by 2026 without changing the price-to-sales ratio.

Of course, no one knows the future, but I wouldn't be surprised if NVIDIA stock at least doubled over that period. And if that happens, it would represent an annualized return of 15%, outperforming the 13% return of the S&P 500 in recent years.

Trevor Jennewine owns shares of NVIDIA. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends NVIDIA. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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