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Could Ayr Wellness Be a Millionaire-Maker Stock?

By David Jagielski – Jul 25, 2021 at 5:49AM

Key Points

  • Ayr Wellness is investing in multiple cannabis markets that could start paying off as early as next year.
  • It's been rapidly growing its sales and adjusted EBITDA.
  • If the company hits its forecast in 2022, it could prove to be a dirt cheap buy right now.

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The company is active in many hot cannabis markets.

Everyone would love to be a millionaire from owning an investment, but just how likely is that to happen? For a $50,000 investment to grow to at least $1 million over 30 years, it would need to rise at an average annual rate of 10.5%.

That's not unreasonable, but if you're looking at a time frame of 20 years, then the rate of return needs to be more than 16%. And if you want that investment to make you a millionaire within a decade -- you'll need annual returns of nearly 35%. That's a better return than Warren Buffett has averaged over the past 50+ years of investing.

While the 10-year rate of return seems unlikely, over a 20-year period, it's possible to become a millionaire if you have invested in the right kind of stocks. For example, investing in a high-growth sector like cannabis can put you in a position to potentially do that. Specifically, one rising pot stock that could potentially position you for great returns is Ayr Wellness (AYRW.F -13.65%)

Two scientists working in a greenhouse.

Image source: Getty Images.

Wide outperformance of the market over the past year

In 12 months, shares of Ayr Wellness are up around 240% and have dwarfed the S&P 500's returns of 32%. Investors started to get bullish on the stock late last year after President Joe Biden won the election, and there was a rise in optimism that marijuana legislation could be around the corner.

It also hasn't hurt that Ayr Wellness has been posting some solid results. On Nov. 18, 2020, the company reported sales of $46 million for the period ending Sept. 30, 2020, a rise of 61% from the previous quarter. It also recorded an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) profit of more than $19 million.

Fast-forward to now, and the company's continuing to build on those numbers, generating sales of $58 million for the first three months of 2021. Its adjusted EBITDA has now totaled at least $18 million for three straight quarters. And the great news for investors is that the company could just be scratching the surface in terms of its potential.

Why Ayr Wellness could continue to be a hot buy

Long-term investors will want to zero in on the company's outlook for 2022, when it anticipates that it will benefit from investments in multiple markets, including Arizona, Florida, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The company projects that in 2022, its revenue will hit $725 million and adjusted EBITDA will come in at $325 million.

If it hits those targets, that would double its current results -- Ayr Wellness projects that for next quarter, its revenue will top $90 million. At $725 million, it would be averaging more than $180 million in quarterly revenue. Add to that an EBITDA margin of 45% and you have a fast-growing pot stock that's also profitable. That's a combination that could make Ayr Wellness a scorching-hot buy.

Currently, the stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 4.4,  which is relatively cheap compared to other pot stocks:

JUSHF PS Ratio (Forward) Chart

JUSHF PS Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.

Can investing in Ayr Wellness make you a millionaire?

Forecasting how Ayr Wellness will do over the next 10-plus years is a challenge. But based on the information available today and the growth opportunities ahead for the business in some hot cannabis markets, it's not unreasonable to expect that it will continue to outperform the S&P 500, which typically averages returns of around 10% per year. The one benefit cannabis investors have is that any news relating to marijuana legalization, including more states permitting adult-use pot, could help Ayr Wellness and other pot stocks surge in value. 

If you're willing to invest $50,000 into Ayr Wellness, it could very well make you a millionaire, assuming it continues producing strong results and the industry keeps on expanding. Once marijuana is legal in the U.S. -- and that could be soon, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer recently unveiling draft legislation that would legalize pot -- the floodgates will undoubtedly open up, and Ayr Wellness stock could surge.

It would also make it easier for the company to expand into new markets. If all goes well, you might not need to wait 30 or even 20 years to see your investment hit the $1 million mark.

Although it isn't a guarantee, there's certainly potential for Ayr Wellness to make you rich over the long run.

David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Ayr Wellness, Green Thumb Industries, Jushi Holdings, and Trulieve Cannabis Corp. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Stocks Mentioned

Ayr Wellness Stock Quote
Ayr Wellness
AYRW.F
$2.74 (-13.65%) $0.43
Trulieve Cannabis Stock Quote
Trulieve Cannabis
TCNNF
$13.59 (-9.14%) $-1.37
Green Thumb Industries Stock Quote
Green Thumb Industries
GTBIF
$13.52 (-13.53%) $-2.12
Jushi Stock Quote
Jushi
JUSHF
$2.11 (-7.48%) $0.17

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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