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Why Moderna Stock Is Falling Today

By Keith Speights – Oct 22, 2021 at 11:32AM

Key Points

  • Investment firm Deutsche Bank initiated coverage on Moderna with a sell rating.
  • It set a price target for the stock 26% below its Thursday closing price.
  • The main concerns for Moderna relate to its prospects after the pandemic ends.

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Deutsche Bank initiated coverage on the vaccine stock with a sell rating.

What happened

Shares of Moderna (MRNA -3.90%) were falling 5.4% as of 11 a.m. EDT on Friday. The decline came after Deutsche Bank (DB -0.85%) initiated coverage on the stock with a sell rating. The investment firm set a price target for Moderna of $250, roughly 26% below the closing price on Thursday.

So what

It's not surprising that the vaccine stock dropped after Deutsche Bank's announcement. What might be at least a little surprising is how much more pessimistic the firm is compared to many other Wall Street analysts. The consensus price target for Moderna is close to $340, roughly in line with the stock's closing price yesterday.

Syringes with $1 bills inside of them.

Image source: Getty Images.

Moderna's near-term prospects look great. The company should generate sales of around $20 billion from its COVID-19 vaccine this year. As of early August, Moderna had already signed advanced purchase agreements for its vaccine in 2022 worth $12 billion, plus options of around $8 billion. The average analyst's revenue estimate is that total revenue next year will be similar to 2021 levels.

The big question for Moderna, though, is what happens after 2022 and 2023. Moderna anticipates that annual COVID-19 vaccine boosters will be required. But it's uncertain if that will indeed be the case. And no one knows how much recurring revenue the company will be able to count on once the pandemic ends.

Now what

Investors should soon get a better sense of how Moderna's revenue through the end of 2022 is shaping up. The company is scheduled to announce its third-quarter results on Nov. 4.

Moderna could provide information about supply deals extending into 2023. However, it's unlikely that the questions about the vaccine-maker's longer-term prospects will be answered in its Q3 update.

Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Moderna Inc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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