Shares of Moderna (MRNA -3.90%) were falling 5.4% as of 11 a.m. EDT on Friday. The decline came after Deutsche Bank (DB -0.85%) initiated coverage on the stock with a sell rating. The investment firm set a price target for Moderna of $250, roughly 26% below the closing price on Thursday.
It's not surprising that the vaccine stock dropped after Deutsche Bank's announcement. What might be at least a little surprising is how much more pessimistic the firm is compared to many other Wall Street analysts. The consensus price target for Moderna is close to $340, roughly in line with the stock's closing price yesterday.
Moderna's near-term prospects look great. The company should generate sales of around $20 billion from its COVID-19 vaccine this year. As of early August, Moderna had already signed advanced purchase agreements for its vaccine in 2022 worth $12 billion, plus options of around $8 billion. The average analyst's revenue estimate is that total revenue next year will be similar to 2021 levels.
The big question for Moderna, though, is what happens after 2022 and 2023. Moderna anticipates that annual COVID-19 vaccine boosters will be required. But it's uncertain if that will indeed be the case. And no one knows how much recurring revenue the company will be able to count on once the pandemic ends.
Investors should soon get a better sense of how Moderna's revenue through the end of 2022 is shaping up. The company is scheduled to announce its third-quarter results on Nov. 4.
Moderna could provide information about supply deals extending into 2023. However, it's unlikely that the questions about the vaccine-maker's longer-term prospects will be answered in its Q3 update.