Over the past century, the stock market has increased an average of 10% per year. While this sort of steady, index-based return might be enough for many investors, those who are willing to take on some more risk should consider the following two stocks, which have the potential to double by the start of 2023.
Both companies have goals they hope to make serious progress on next year. With strong execution from each company, I believe Lemonade (NYSE:LMND) and PubMatic (NASDAQ:PUBM) can provide market-beating returns in 2022.
Lemonade: Investments that can really pay off
Lemonade is the richest-valued insurance stock on the market, trading at 29 times sales, even after shares have fallen over 70% from their all-time high. However, Lemonade might be worth this high multiple, because it is radically disrupting the insurance market.
The company is bringing artificial intelligence to the industry as no other company has before, allowing some customers to get approved and paid for claims in just seconds. This speed and convenience is attracting a growing base of happy customers who are also increasing their spending with Lemonade over time. Its customer count was up 45% year over year to 1.36 million in the third quarter, and the premium per customer grew 26% to $254.
Consumers have also been spending more with Lemonade, because it's rapidly expanding its offerings. The company recently introduced car insurance, in addition to its life insurance rollout earlier this year. While this expansion drove 84% year-over-year growth for Lemonade's in-force premium -- which sat at $347 million as of the latest quarter -- it was also the cause of a worsening net loss ratio. The loss ratio is the ratio of premiums that are paid out in claims, and Lemonade wants to keep its loss ratio under 75% long term across its product portfolio.
Due to product expansion and the one-time Texas Freeze, the company has fallen short of this target in 2021. However, management has said that as the AI becomes more accurate in its new product lines and pays out fewer claims as a result, its loss ratio should start to decline. This is the backdrop for why Lemonade stock has been battered in 2021, but if the company can show sustained improvements to its loss ratio -- keeping that number below 75% -- as its products and AI mature, investors are likely to flood back into the stock.
PubMatic: The fast-growing underdog
On the sell-side of the advertising technology space -- where companies represent publishers to help them find appropriate advertisers for their platform -- Magnite has been the leader. Since its joint merger of the Rubicon Project and Telaria in 2020, Magnite has been growing primarily by acquiring small businesses to maintain its market-leading position. But PubMatic is trying to change that.
PubMatic is an underdog sell-side adtech company that is growing organically. The company is doing so especially in connected TV (CTV), where the future of online advertising is likely to reside. Advertisers are spending nearly double on CTV advertising compared to traditional advertising on a website, primarily because they see much more ad engagement and action on CTV ads compared to traditional ads. This has led to CTV revenue for PubMatic soaring sevenfold year over year. The company has also been increasing its CTV publisher count, reaching 154 in the third quarter compared to 114 in the second quarter.
What really makes PubMatic stand out from its competitors, however, is its Identity Hub. The Identity Hub allows publishers and advertisers to get consumer data without using cookies, which can compromise consumer privacy. Publishers use the Identity Hub to input information a consumer has voluntarily given -- such as an email address -- and then publishers get access to dozens of identifier solutions like The Trade Desk's UID 2.0.
In light of recent changes from tech giants to ban cookies, the usage of alternate identifiers has grown and is likely going to be the future of the adtech space. Considering that PubMatic saw this coming and now generates over 60% of its revenue from cookie-less sources shows the company's visionary leadership is ahead of the curve. This management edge should allow PubMatic to stay ahead of competitors that might be trailing in their innovation, forcing them to acquire it externally instead of building it from within.
If PubMatic continues to grow organically at its current pace, outperforming even Magnite's acquisition-hungry strategy, then the company can lead its industry within two or three years. For PubMatic, 2022 could be the year it breaks out thanks to the Identity Hub and its strong management team.