Today, it takes a market cap of just over $550 billion to earn a spot on the top 10 list. And this is likely to rise in the future. If the stock market averages 9% annualized returns between now and 2035, that implies that the 10 largest companies will have market caps of about $1.7 trillion or greater, and some will likely be several times larger than this threshold. With that in mind, here are 10 companies (in no particular order) that I think have an excellent shot of being on the list when 2035 arrives.
The 10 largest stocks by 2035?
- Apple (AAPL +0.73%)
This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. With a market cap of about $2.7 trillion today, Apple would likely be firmly in the top 10 in 2035 even if it doesn't appreciate in value at all. But with an extremely loyal customer base, tremendous pricing power, and the ability to generate over $100 billion in free cash flow annually, I wouldn't be shocked to see Apple become the first $5 trillion company, and well before 2035.
NASDAQ: AAPL
Key Data Points
- Amazon (AMZN 1.19%)
With a market cap of about $1.63 trillion, Amazon is one of the largest companies today, but don't make the mistake of thinking it has maxed out its potential. After all, e-commerce is still less than 15% of total U.S. retail sales, its Amazon Web Services (AWS) business has a rapidly growing addressable market, and there are several other areas Amazon could expand into over the next decade or so.
Image source: Getty Images.
- MercadoLibre (MELI +1.36%)
MercadoLibre often gets referred to as the Amazon of Latin America, but it is so much more than that. It's like the Amazon, Block (SQ 1.26%), eBay (EBAY +2.10%), and maybe even the Shopify (SHOP 2.63%) of Latin America, all in one stock, and at much earlier stages of their respective growth cycles. With a $57 billion market cap, MercadoLibre is one of the smaller companies on this list, but it definitely has trillion-dollar potential if it can realize its true potential.
NASDAQ: MELI
Key Data Points
- PayPal (PYPL +0.81%)
PayPal's stock has been beaten down recently, and to be fair, its customer base isn't growing as fast as investors had been expecting. However, this is still the dominant leader in payment processing, especially for e-commerce, with over 400 million active users and operations all over the world. There are still some unanswered questions regarding future growth strategy and the ability to effectively monetize all of its users, but there's trillion-dollar potential here.
Alphabet is best known for its Google platform, which has a dominant share of the internet search market. With a $1.8 trillion market cap, and several other businesses that could end up being needle-movers, Alphabet is likely to still be one of the 10 largest companies in the market by 2035.
- Block (Square)
Block, formerly known as Square, has evolved from a niche payment processing hardware company into a full-featured financial ecosystem in its first 13 years of existence. And with the company just scratching the surface of its long-term opportunities, it will be fun to watch the next 13 years of Block's evolution. If it can be half as innovative as it has been so far, it could certainly earn a spot in the top 10.
NYSE: SQ
Key Data Points
- Shopify
As mentioned in the context of Amazon, fewer than 15% of retail sales take place by e-commerce. And this is in the U.S. -- in many international markets, e-commerce penetration is even lower. Shopify has grown into a leader in enabling e-commerce for businesses of all sizes, and it could multiply its business many times over as the industry continues to evolve.
- Microsoft (MSFT 1.21%)
Microsoft isn't going to deliver jaw-dropping returns between now and 2035, but it doesn't need to. With a $2.24 trillion market cap and a largely predictable and growing revenue stream, it's difficult to imagine a world where Microsoft wasn't near the top of the list for the foreseeable future.
- Airbnb (ABNB 1.10%)
It's tough to imagine a "lodging stock" with a trillion-dollar market value, but it wouldn't be shocking to see Airbnb achieve it. The company's addressable market is literally every short-term and long-term rental property in the world, as well as every adjacent experience that can be booked through the platform. Airbnb estimates that the current opportunity is roughly $4 trillion in annual bookings, and if Airbnb can grow into a dominant force, it could reach the top 10 list.
Berkshire Hathaway is designed to produce returns that are consistently market-beating, and with a nearly 60-year track record of doing just that, there's no reason to believe this will change. And this is even true if Warren Buffett is no longer at the helm. Buffett would turn 105 years old in 2035, so it's unlikely he'll still be calling the shots at Berkshire, but this is a long-term compounding machine that should keep doing what it's designed to do.
There are many others that could end up on the list
As I mentioned, nobody can predict the future, and I certainly am not an exception. And it's important to mention that this isn't an exhaustive list of stocks that have multitrillion-dollar market cap potential between now and 2035. Just to name a few examples, chipmaker NVIDIA (NVDA +0.64%) was No. 11 on my list, and there are several companies in the payments industry, especially Visa (V +0.96%), Mastercard (MA +0.40%), and Adyen (ADYE.Y 0.28%), that could certainly grow to several times their current size.
The electric vehicle space remains a massive opportunity. Tesla (TSLA 2.60%) could certainly land in the top 10 if it ends up dominating the industry, and General Motors (GM +1.53%) is an example of a company that has lots of potential in both electric and autonomous vehicles.
I know I missed some other high-potential companies here, including some that are currently on the top 10 list by market cap. But the point is that I could go on and on with companies that could be the next trillion-dollar businesses. But the 10 in this list are those I feel have the best chance to end up on top.
