What happened
Investors who thought Rivian Automotive (RIVN 6.10%) stock had bottomed out in March were apparently too optimistic. The electric vehicle (EV) stock tumbled by another 16.5% this week, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Interestingly enough, at least one analyst expects Rivian stock to more than double from its current price, but investors are finding it hard to maintain faith in the electric truck start-up.
So what
Rivian filed its annual 10-K report with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 31. While its numbers were nothing to write home about, the filing gave investors a bit more insight into something they hadn't been privy to earlier -- the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Rivian's operations.
Rivian admitted the supply crunch in critical parts such as semiconductors was posing a major challenge to it, noting that it had been compelled to make changes to its processes to adapt to those shortages. The changes have only added to the company's vehicle production costs, which were already on the rise because of the sharp increases in the prices of metals such as lithium and nickel -- key inputs for EVs.
Image source: Rivian Automotive.
Rivian also didn't rule out the possibility of a hike in the prices of its vehicles in the near future to offset its rising costs. This may not work in Rivian's favor, as it's already struggling to scale up production and fulfill its order backlog. For perspective, on April 5, Rivian reiterated its forecast that it will produce 25,000 EVs in 2022. Just a few weeks ago, it said it could have produced 50,000 units this year if not for the supply and logistics challenges.
Moreover, Rivian said on April 5 that it had produced 2,553 vehicles and delivered 1,227 vehicles in the first quarter. Although I find this production run rate encouraging given that Rivian had produced only 1,410 vehicles this year through March 8, investors wanted more from the company.
In between, General Motors (GM 0.48%) and Honda announced plans to co-develop and mass-produce affordable electric vehicles by 2027. Although the legacy automakers are targeting crossovers and SUVs, the possibility of them developing an electric pickup cannot be ruled out. General Motors' GMC Hummer EV, which is expected to start production in 2023, is already being viewed as a rival to Rivian's R1T pickup.
Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA -1.11%) has officially opened the Texas gigafactory that will initially produce the Model Y SUV, but will next year start manufacturing the delayed Cybertruck -- another direct competitor to the R1T.
Now what
To be fair, I'm not surprised that Rivian shareholders are feeling nervous. The R1T pickup truck may have received glorious initial reviews, but that will make little difference to investors until the company can produce trucks at scale and deliver them to buyers. Competition in its niche is heating up and costs are on the rise, and with investor confidence slipping, those headwinds are getting reflected in Rivian's stock price.
