Cannabis producer Tilray (TLRY -4.89%) released its year-end numbers last month, and they confirmed one thing: The company has a lot of work to do in reaching its sky-high projections for fiscal 2024. If the company wants to hit its goal of $4 billion in annual sales two years from now, its top line would have to jump to more than six times what it posted this past fiscal year ($628 million). That leads to only one logical conclusion: Tilray will need to be incredibly active on the mergers and acquisition front if it hopes to get anywhere near that goal.
Tilray experienced growth of just 22% last year
For the fiscal year ended May 31, sales rose by just 22%. Without factoring in the effect of foreign exchange, that percentage jumped to 29%. Either way, that growth rate remains insufficient for a company that has been making incredibly bullish forecasts.
And in the Canadian market, things have been going from bad to worse for Tilray. Part of Tilray's goal in reaching $4 billion involves dominating the Canadian pot market. Its goal is to hit a market share of at least 30%. That seemed like a pipe dream when the company first announced those plans, back when its market share was about 16%.
On the company's most recent earnings call, however, Blair MacNeil, the president of the company's Canadian business, said that Tilray's retail market share was down to just 8.3%. MacNeil said he believes that there will be "significant consolidation" among licensed producers in Canada over the course of the next year.
To get to the type of numbers and growth that Tilray is hoping to achieve, there's no question that there will need to be a significant uptick in M&A. But the danger for investors is that that can mean lots of dilution ahead if Tilray pays for acquisitions with stock.
The company has been burning through cash
Tilray prides itself on being a business that is profitable on the basis of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) -- the latest quarter was its 13th consecutive with positive adjusted EBITDA.
However, what investors should be focused on more is the company's cash flow. In the most recent fiscal year, Tilray used up $177 million in the course of its daily operations. That's four times the $45 million it used a year ago. As of the end of May, the company's cash and cash equivalents were just under $416 million.
A lack of positive cash flow means that it's inevitable that Tilray will need to raise money to not just keep its operations going, but to also pursue the acquisitions it needs to meet its aggressive sales targets. For investors, that means that the share count may continue rising.
TLRY Shares Outstanding data by YCharts
Tilray is a risky stock that investors should avoid
The closer that Tilray gets to fiscal 2024, the riskier the pot stock becomes -- especially if there isn't a huge increase in revenue. If and when the day comes that the projection gets cut, the stock could be due for a serious decline.
Shares of Tilray are down 67% in the past year on the Toronto Stock Exchange, which is better than its peers, Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth, which are down 75% and 79%, respectively. But with high expectations pinned to its business, Tilray could have more to lose over the next few years if things don't go as glowingly as management expects them to.
