On Wednesday, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD -2.35%) released its official third-quarter results, which largely confirmed the preliminary report it shared with investors just a few weeks ago.
AMD's $5.6 billion in revenue was sharply lower than the company's original estimate of $6.7 billion, which prompted management to reduce its guidance for the year. That said, there are plenty of reasons to be positive about AMD, especially over the long term, and with its stock down 62% from the all-time high it touched last November, now might be a great time to get involved.
Here are three key takeaways from the third-quarter report.
1. The data center segment is still hot
Data centers used to largely be places to store information, but now, they're hives of cloud computing activity that power the operations of thousands of companies.
Plus, in the past, it was impossible to manually process and analyze data in any significant volume. Now, thanks to advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning, data centers are also where some of the most valuable insights for businesses originate. But gleaning those insights requires powerful semiconductors, which AMD produces.
The data center segment was AMD's second-largest revenue producer in Q3, behind gaming, but its 45% year-over-year growth rate trounced gaming's 14%, and it could pull ahead into the top spot by the end of 2022.
The cloud will likely be a major factor in AMD's data center revenue over the long term. According to Grand View Research, cloud industry revenues could top $1.5 trillion annually by 2030, and AMD already serves all of the largest providers of cloud services, from Amazon Web Services to Microsoft Azure to Alphabet's Google Cloud.
2. Economic turmoil is cutting into consumer spending on tech
Consumers spend less money when the economy is weak, especially on big-ticket items like personal computers. That should come as no surprise, and therefore, neither should Q3's 40% revenue drop in AMD's client segment, which produces chips for notebook and desktop computers.
That was the main drag on the company's third-quarter results as revenue shrank to $1 billion from $1.6 billion at the same time last year. Plus, there were semiconductor shortages during 2020 and 2021 due to pandemic-related production shutdowns, but AMD noted there has recently been a "significant inventory correction." In other words, supply has caught up with demand and surpassed it in some categories, leaving the industry with too many chips. That could suppress prices in Q4, which would deal another blow to AMD's client segment.
But there could be some relief around the corner. The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark federal funds rate by another 75 basis points on Wednesday, but hinted that its future interest rate increases might be smaller. If the central bank eases back on the intensity of its monetary tightening campaign, which has contributed to the economic slowdown, AMD's client segment might bounce back next year.
3. The overall 2022 outlook remains strong
In the first quarter, AMD forecast that it would generate revenues of $26.3 billion in 2022. It maintained that guidance in Q2, but because its Q3 results fell short of expectations, the company revised its full-year revenue guidance down to $23.5 billion.
As disappointing as that sounds, it would still be an increase of 43% compared to AMD's top-line result of $16.4 billion in 2021.
It's also important to focus on AMD's long-term potential, particularly given its recent $49 billion acquisition of Xilinx, a leader in adaptive computing. Xilinx's technology could drive the next decade of growth for AMD, which believes it to be the next frontier in the chip world. Adaptive hardware can be adjusted to meet end-users' needs in real time, and can be reconfigured even after the manufacturing process. That's a big advantage compared to traditional semiconductors that need to be entirely replaced to be upgraded.
AMD's embedded segment booked $1.3 billion in revenue in Q3, and Xilinx was the main contributor of those sales, so it's already having a significant impact.
Despite a shaky economy and short-term jitters that have sent AMD stock down by 62% from its peak, it's clear the company's long-term trajectory is on track. That could spell opportunity for investors who buy in now.
