While tech valuations were inflated in 2021, that's no longer the case in late 2022. In fact, I would argue that many of these companies are fairly priced or even undervalued. This notion should give investors confidence to buy stocks right now, as a recovery could be imminent.
Three stocks at the top of my shopping list are Alphabet (GOOG 1.43%) (GOOGL 1.42%), Airbnb (ABNB 1.03%), and Adobe (ADBE 0.40%). Each of these businesses trades at a reasonable price, and today marks a prime investment opportunity for each.
1. Alphabet
Alphabet, Google's parent company, has had a rough year for one reason: its advertising revenue concentration. Advertisement revenue falls as the economic outlook worsens, and with nearly 80% of Alphabet's revenue derived from advertising sources, investors are worried.
In the quarter, earnings per share (EPS) were also down to $1.06 from $1.40 last year. However, this wound was self inflicted due to rising operating expenses, primarily driven by Alphabet hiring more than 35,000 people in 12 months. To control this expense, Alphabet is cutting back on its hires and scrutinizing some of its less-than-successful projects.
Still, Alphabet trades for 17.4 times earnings, while the S&P 500 index trades for about 19.6 times. So does Alphabet's stock deserve to be down? Probably. Does it deserve to trade at a lower multiple than the S&P 500? Definitely not.
Alphabet's track record speaks for itself in long-term execution. Additionally, the company is taking the correct actions to control costs. When advertising revenue comes flooding back after the economy recovers, Alphabet's profits will soar, making the stock look cheaper than it already is. Investors shouldn't wait around on this one, as its recovery could be snappy when sentiment changes.
2. Airbnb
Despite Airbnb posting its best quarter ever on Nov. 1, the stock dropped 13% the next day, bringing its year-to-date performance to a 43% decline. Its quarter was fantastic: Revenue was up 29% YOY, and profits were up 46% YOY to $1.2 billion.
Additionally, it generated $960 million in free cash flow, bringing its total for the past 12 months to $3.3 billion. With a market cap of $61.5 billion, that means Airbnb trades for 18.6 times free cash flow, an extremely reasonable valuation.
However, Airbnb's outlook for Q4 wasn't what investors wanted to see. There are signs consumer spending is weakening, but revenue should still grow about 20% YOY. That said, with nights and experiences booked, growth rate is slightly decreasing compared to Q3's values.
I don't think this revenue slowdown is nearly enough to warrant the stock sell-off, and investors should use this opportunity to snag shares.
3. Adobe
Acquisitions can make or break a company, and judging by investors' reactions to Adobe's acquisition of Figma, they are worried. It's not that Figma had a bad product. Rather, it's that Adobe paid $20 billion for Figma, working out to a 50 times sales valuation.
Additionally, Adobe is issuing stock to cover half of the expenses, and with Adobe's $285 share price, that means it will need to issue 35 million shares to cover the costs, essentially resetting all of Adobe's share repurchases since 2016. That's not a great look for management's decision-making, but the purchase gives Adobe web-based collaboration technology that its offerings lacked.
Because of the negative sentiment, Adobe's stock trades for 20 times free cash flow, the lowest since 2014 when it switched to a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model. In time, investors will forget about this acquisition and focus on Adobe's business, which grew revenue by 13% YOY in its Q3 fiscal year 2022 (ending Sept. 2). Furthermore, analysts expect Adobe to grow revenue by 10% next year.
Adobe is a top software stock, and although the company made a bold move by acquiring Figma for a premium price, its collaboration technology will be worth it in the end.
All three businesses are undervalued at best and reasonably valued at worst. The businesses are also executing well, despite challenging economic conditions. The recovery of these stocks to their typical valuations will be swift, even though I have no idea when this will happen.
These sale prices won't last long, and investors should pick them up while they still can for great prices.
