Few marijuana businesses are as hungry for growth as Tilray Brands (TLRY 6.39%). With operations spanning North America, Europe, Australia, and South America, its global footprint exposes it to the majority of the world's most lucrative cannabis markets.
That might make it a good investment. But could it become a three-bagger before the decade closes for people who invest today? It's more likely than it sounds. Let's do a few quick calculations to show why it's possible and then explore how tripling in value before 2027 is a target that may well be within reach.
Revenue growth will need to accelerate significantly
Right now, Tilray has a market cap of just over $2.6 billion, which means that it'll need to grow to reach a cap of $7.8 billion to triple. If we assume that its trailing 12-month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.5 will stay roughly the same, that market cap implies reaching an annual total revenue of around $2.2 billion before 2027. That's quite a big jump from its total revenue of $628.3 million in its 2022 fiscal year.
In fact, in the five years between now and 2027, Tilray will need to expand its sales with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 29% if it's going to triple in value. That's quite an aggressive pace, especially considering that over the last three years the company only grew its annual revenue by a little over 55%. But it isn't as improbable as it may seem at first glance. Tilray has a handful of powerful catalysts for growth that are likely to occur over the next few years.
Legalization in the E.U. and the U.S. makes for a very plausible path to tripling
As a multinational cannabis operator, Tilray's fortunes are linked to marijuana legalization legislation in its major markets, specifically the U.S. and the E.U. Both are actively in the process of changing their regulations, right when Tilray is improving its positioning in each.
In the U.S., in 2021 the company initiated a strategic transaction that saw it acquire $165.8 million of the convertible debt of multi-state operator (MSO) MedMen. That deal gives Tilray the option to convert its debt into ownership in the event of legalization, meaning that it can enter the U.S. market very quickly once the market is fully opened.
And, with its ongoing acquisition of beer breweries and distilleries across the country, including most recently its purchase of Montauk Brewing Co. announced Nov. 7, its distribution network is getting stronger and more comprehensive in its geographical access to different regions. So, management is working to grease the wheels in the run-up to legalization to ensure that rapid growth occurs shortly after legalization does, assuming that it actually happens sometime soon.
The picture is very similar in the E.U., where the company is anticipating imminent shifts in the legal landscape, starting with Germany. While it already controls Germany's medicinal market via a subsidiary, the government there has resolved to open its adult-use market by 2024.
Other European countries may follow suit in the coming years, or the entire E.U. could pass new regulations to address the issue in a centralized fashion. BDS Analytics, a research group, estimates that the European market could become as large as $3.9 billion by 2025, and Tilray is already planning to capture as much of it as possible.
Therefore, Tilray's early positioning in places like Germany, Portugal, Poland, and Italy could pay off big. This -- when considered in tandem with the gains it could earn resulting from U.S. legalization -- makes the prospect of tripling in value over the next five years reasonable, if a bit ambitious. Still, it's important to note that over the last year, the company's revenue actually shrank, and it's not going to be profitable anytime soon.
If you're looking for a safe multinational cannabis stock, this probably isn't it, and there might not be one to find. But, if you're willing to make a risky bet that legalization across two continents plays out the way management is expecting and on the timetable it prefers, and that the business will actually be able to execute its post-legalization plans effectively to grow and eventually become profitable, it's an attractive long-term pick.
