Several technology companies opted for stock splits in 2022 in a bid to make their shares more attractive to investors amid the broader stock market sell-off.
A stock split is basically a cosmetic move that reduces a company's stock price while proportionally increasing the number of shares outstanding. Individual shareholders gain shares of the company but each share is worth less, so the overall holding remains unchanged. It does nothing to alter the fundamentals of the company making the split or affect its prospects going forward. Still, some of the companies that went down this route in 2022 may be on their way to delivering handsome returns to investors in the long run.
Shopify (SHOP 2.08%) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW 0.15%) are two businesses that executed stock splits in 2022. Let's look at the reasons why these two companies could double investors' money over the next five years.
1. Shopify
Shopify executed its 10-for-1 stock split on June 28. Shares of the e-commerce platform provider have been on a roller-coaster ride ever since, but the good part is that they are up roughly 23% since the split was executed.
NASDAQ: SHOP
Key Data Points
To be fair, Shopify stock is in red-hot form on the market lately, gaining over 60% since the beginning of October and crushing the Nasdaq Composite's return of 8%. Investors can expect Shopify to remain a top performer in the long run as well because it is serving the fast-growing e-commerce market in various ways.
From helping merchants start their online businesses with its website tools to assisting them in selling their products across multiple e-commerce platforms, as well as providing infrastructure for payments and shipping, Shopify is in a nice position to take advantage of the e-commerce market's growth. Not surprisingly, the company's offerings are seeing healthy demand from merchants, which was evident from the 22% year-over-year increase in its revenue to $1.4 billion in the third quarter.
Its merchant solutions revenue was up 26% year over year during Q3 to nearly $990 million, driven by the growing adoption of its services such as Shopify Payments, Shopify Capital, and Shopify Markets, which the company says is a cross-border e-commerce management tool that allows sellers to sell their products internationally.
Now, the cross-border e-commerce market is expected to clock an annual growth rate of 26% through 2030. Similarly, the e-commerce payments space is expected to post annual growth of 11.5% through 2028. Therefore, the demand for Shopify's solutions should head higher in the long run thanks to the expansion of the e-commerce market. Additionally, the company's steps to bolster its fulfillment network business should be another tailwind.
All this explains why Shopify's top line could grow at a solid pace over the next three years.
SHOP Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts
More specifically, Shopify's revenue is estimated to jump 22% in 2023 and 25% in 2024. If the company clocks 20% annual revenue growth over the next five years, its top line could soar from this year's estimated $5.5 billion to nearly $14 billion in 2027. Shopify is trading at 10.4 times sales right now, which represents a discount to its five-year average price-to-sales ratio of 31. Assuming a similar sales multiple in five years would translate into a market capitalization of $145 billion, which would be more than double Shopify's current market cap of $55 billion.
As a result, this stock-split play seems built for long-term growth and investors may want to take advantage of the relatively cheap valuation it is trading at right now.
2. Palo Alto Networks
Palo Alto Networks split its stock 3-for-1 on Sept. 13. Shares of the cybersecurity specialist have slipped 5% since the split, but the company's recent results and the solid revenue pipeline suggest that it could soar higher over the next five years.
NASDAQ: PANW
Key Data Points
Palo Alto released its fiscal 2023 first-quarter results on Nov. 17. The company reported impressive top- and bottom-line growth that exceeded analysts' expectations. More importantly, Palo Alto guided for healthy revenue growth of 25.5% to $6.88 billion in the current fiscal year. The secular expansion of the cybersecurity market and Palo Alto's market share should help it sustain a high level of growth in the next five years.
The cybersecurity market is expected to add $93 billion in annual revenue over the next five years, generating annual revenue of $266 billion by 2027. Palo Alto has impressive market share in fast-growing cybersecurity niches that should help it corner a nice chunk of this opportunity. For instance, the company's share of the cybersecurity appliances market stands at nearly 30%.
Palo Alto's healthy market share explains why its annualized recurring revenue (ARR) has been rising at a terrific pace. The ARR is the annualized value of customer contracts that are in force on the final day of the quarter. The company reported $2.1 billion in ARR at the end of the previous quarter, up 67% over the prior-year period. Palo Alto's remaining performance obligations, which refer to the total value of customer contracts that are yet to be fulfilled, increased 38% year over year last quarter to $8.3 billion.
The strong revenue pipeline shows why Palo Alto's top line is expected to grow nicely in the coming years.
PANW Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts
Analysts expect Palo Alto's revenue to increase by 22% in fiscal 2024, followed by a 19% jump in fiscal 2025 to $9.96 billion. If the company clocks revenue growth of even 15% in fiscal years 2026 and 2027, its top line would soar to $13 billion. Multiplying the projected revenue after five years with Palo Alto's five-year average price-to-sales multiple of 8.5 would translate into a market capitalization of $110 billion.
Palo Alto's current market cap is $52 billion. So, this cybersecurity stock has the potential to double investors' money over the next five years thanks to the impressive catalysts it is sitting on.
