The past few years may seem like the best of times for Moderna (MRNA 1.55%). The company launched its very first product: the coronavirus vaccine. And thanks to that product, Moderna brought in billions of dollars in revenue and profit. The vaccine also brought Moderna's messenger RNA technology to the forefront.
Moderna saw its share performance take off too. And that helped the company's market value soar more than 800% from pre-pandemic days to $64 billion today.
In recent times, Moderna's momentum has slowed. Investors have worried about potential declines in vaccine sales in a post-pandemic world. But Moderna's good times may be far from over. Let's check out where this company will be in five years.
Vaccine revenue of $18.4 billion
First, a quick summary of Moderna's progress so far. Moderna and Pfizer became the first companies to launch coronavirus vaccines in late 2020. Since then, the two companies have dominated the vaccine market.
Moderna predicts vaccine revenue last year will total about $18.4 billion. The vaccine also has helped the company build up a huge level of cash.
However, investors stepped away from Moderna on concerns about the company's future revenue. It's clear demand for vaccination in a post-pandemic world will be lower than it was in the earlier days of the pandemic. And that means we're unlikely to see vaccine and booster revenue moving higher from year to year over today's levels.
But before we start getting too worried about Moderna's situation, let's consider what's happening now -- and where that might bring Moderna in five years. Today, Moderna is preparing for a post-pandemic environment. It expects the global coronavirus vaccine market to follow the flu shot market in terms of demand -- and that brings it to $12 billion to $24 billion, depending on vaccine pricing. Moderna also has said it may raise the price of its vaccine to as much as $130 a dose from today's level of $26.
So, yes, vaccine revenue will drop from current levels -- but it should still remain well into blockbuster territory.
NASDAQ: MRNA
Key Data Points
Several potential blockbusters
Meanwhile, Moderna now is preparing several candidates that, if all goes well, could reach commercialization within the next few years. And these candidates have blockbuster potential. I'm talking about vaccine candidates for flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and cytomegalovirus (CMV).
Moderna also is working on a combined coronavirus and flu vaccine candidate and a candidate that combines flu, coronavirus, and RSV. These potentially could hit the market within five years or so.
The company's cash level now stands at $18 billion, which will help it move these potential products through the pipeline and even invest to support development.
Speaking of investment, Moderna recently said it would acquire Oriciro Genomics. The Japanese company's technology in cell-free synthesis and plasmid DNA amplification could help Moderna cut manufacturing time by 30%, Moderna's CEO told FiercePharma. This should help Moderna bring candidates into clinical trials more quickly -- and that helps them make it to market more quickly, too.
Of course, it's impossible to guarantee the success of each candidate in the pipeline. A candidate can fail in phase 3 trials or simply not pass the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's review process.
What Moderna may look like
But if Moderna's candidates do succeed, here's what the picture may look like in five years.
Moderna may continue generating blockbuster revenue from its coronavirus vaccine business. This could be from an updated booster and/or a new combined coronavirus and flu vaccine.
The company also might have reached commercialization with vaccines for flu, RSV, and CMV. As mentioned, each of these could generate billions of dollars in revenue annually.
Together, these and other programs should help Moderna's revenue to grow significantly over time. And the good news is that Moderna no longer will depend on just one disease area. This reduces risk -- and could attract more investors to the stock. That should equal lasting share price gains.
All of this means Moderna's days in the spotlight aren't over. Five years from now, the company may look even more attractive than it does today -- thanks to a growing portfolio of commercialized products. So there's reason to be optimistic about this biotech stock well beyond pandemic days.
