Better Cruise Stock Buy: Royal Caribbean or Lindblad Expeditions?

Amid the ongoing consumer preference shift from goods to experiences, the cruise industry enjoyed a record booking season. Cruise operators stand to benefit from historically strong demand levels, provided they can contend with inflation, increased costs, and labor struggles.

Today I'll compare two distinctly different companies to determine which cruise line stock makes the better buy in today's market.

The case for Royal Caribbean 

Earning six times more revenue in 2022 than 2021, Royal Caribbean (RCL 2.27%) has observed steady demand amid accelerating onboard revenue generation. In other words, vacationers want to cruise more with Royal Caribbean, and their spending while onboard has intensified.

Fourth-quarter revenue landed at $2.6 billion, a 265% year-over-year improvement. Load factor, or the percentage of occupancy aboard ships, reached as high as 110% during peak holiday sailings last December. Despite definitive revenue growth, Royal Caribbean finished Q4 with a net loss of $500 million. 

But compared to the $1.4 billion loss endured in Q4 2021, a half-billion-dollar loss doesn't look quite as bad -- and demonstrates a clear course toward profitability. And the loss actually came in smaller than Royal Caribbean's management team expected.

Similarly, 2022's full-year net loss of $2.1 billion marks a significant improvement over 2021's net loss of $5.3 billion. Undeterred by elevated expenses in fuel, food and beverage, airfare, and labor, Royal Caribbean anticipates adjusted earnings per share to hit $3 to $3.60 for the year -- on 14% higher capacity than 2019.

While the company enjoys a record-breaking 2023 booking season and onboard spending skyrockets, Royal Caribbean stock still trades 47% below its pre-pandemic January 2020 high. 

The case for Lindblad Expeditions

Delivering 80% year-over-year revenue growth last quarter, Lindblad Expeditions (LIND -0.55%) benefited from relentless adventure-travel demand. The New York City-based operator's net revenue of $118 million last quarter also marked a 56% improvement over 2019 levels.

An expanded fleet that includes the newly refurbished National Geographic Islander II ship, as well as enhanced land-based offerings, both served as major revenue drivers for the fourth quarter. Having acquired a string of land companies over the past seven years, Lindblad has balanced its ocean expedition offerings with adventures on the ground.

While revenue soared, however, so did expenses. Ultimately, Lindblad ended Q4 2022 with an adjusted loss of $2.7 million on the basis of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). But the loss does mark an $11 million improvement over 2021's fourth-quarter loss.

Surging costs in fuel, labor, and land-based operations all impacted Lindblad's profitability throughout 2022. Overall, last year resulted in 88% higher expenses than 2021. Company initiatives such as digital marketing and fleet improvements also added to expenses.

As of Lindblad's earnings call late last month, bookings for 2023 outpaced the same point in 2019 by 47%. And company guidance for 2023 shows a positive EBITDA range of $70 million to $80 million. Meanwhile, Lindblad stock trades 58% below its March 2021 high.

Which cruise stock is a better buy right now?

Although Royal Caribbean and Lindblad Expeditions are technically in the same sector, they are considerably different entities. For one, Royal Caribbean's market cap is roughly 35 times that of Lindblad Expeditions, making Royal Caribbean a generally more stable, less risky investment.

Since both cruise operators posted a net loss last year, I've compared their price-to-sales ratios (P/S) and one-year revenue forecasts.

Data source: WallStreetZen.

While Lindblad Expeditions sports a lower, more appealing price-to-sales ratio, Royal Caribbean shows a better one-year revenue estimate, according to WallStreetZen analysts. 

Since it's a more established company with a much larger market cap, the nod today goes to Royal Caribbean. However, if Lindblad Expeditions continues on course toward profitability, its stock price could also see some upside. After all, a rising tide lifts all boats.