Shares of Tesla (TSLA -3.71%) seem to march higher every day recently. The stock has risen 43% over the past 30 days and about 100% year to date. The run-up has analysts racing to reevaluate their 12-month price targets for the growth stock. Believe it or not, some of analysts' recently revised targets call for even more substantial upside for shares. Last week, one analyst laid out a case for shares to climb to $300 over the next 12 months. Yet this target was topped this week by a new target set by KGI Securities analyst Jennifer Liang. She thinks shares could skyrocket to $335 over the next 12 months.
As investors try to decide what to do with Tesla stock after its extraordinary run, let's take a closer look at the latest analyst's case for the electric-car maker's shares to see whether or not she's onto something.
The path to $335
Representing 35% upside from here, Liang's $335 price target for Tesla stock is extremely bullish, to say the least. A 35% return in and of itself is exceptional. But one that is on top of a 100% gain over the last six months is downright jaw-dropping. So how did Liang arrive at such an optimistic view for the stock?
Her rosy view is built on a number of factors.
First, she says that Tesla's aggressive investments in the electric vehicle space are paying off nicely for the company this year. Specifically, she mentioned Tesla's investments in manufacturing and battery technologies. Of course, Tesla is also seeing the fruit of its vast network of fast-charging stations, with both Ford and General Motors announcing partnerships with Tesla over the last few weeks to make its vehicles compatible with the electric-car maker's charging network.
Liang also thinks Tesla is poised to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act, which lets eligible customers claim up to a $7,500 credit when purchasing any of the four Tesla vehicle Models. In addition, the Semi qualifies for a credit of up to $40,000. Further, Liang estimates Tesla will collect billions of dollars in tax credits for its battery production.
Finally, Liang believes Tesla's product development in artificial intelligence is underrated.
Hype or substance?
There's a good chance the catalysts Liang points out will, indeed, contribute positively to Tesla's business. But what investors need to gauge after such an enormous run-up in the stock price is whether or not the robust growth investors expect from Tesla is now already priced into shares. While nobody can forecast the future, one thing is certain: At 68 times earnings, there's significantly less wiggle room for error when it comes to the market's optimistic expectations for Tesla's business.
All of this means the stakes are high for Tesla to continue executing well. For the company to justify its valuation, investors should look for positive news from the company throughout the year. Specifically, investors should hope for Tesla's year-over-year growth rates in quarterly vehicle deliveries to accelerate throughout the year. This means investors should look for even higher growth rates than the 36% year-over-year growth in deliveries Tesla saw in Q1. If the automaker can pull this off, it will make a strong case for investors that Tesla's growth story is still in its early innings. Execution like this could ultimately give Tesla analysts' recent upbeat commentary on the stock some substance.
On the other hand, if Tesla sales disappoint in the coming quarters, investors may have to reassess whether or not the stock's high valuation is deserved.