Anyone who wrote off Meta Platforms (META -0.28%) could be kicking themselves. The stock is on a roll, skyrocketing more than 130% so far in 2023.
This impressive run has made Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg nearly $57 billion richer this year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Is artificial intelligence (AI) to thank?
Zuck's luck?
There's a really good case to be made that AI indeed played a key role in adding so much to Zuckerberg's wealth. Meta stock took off in late 2022, soon after OpenAI launched its wildly popular generative AI app ChatGPT.
Meta wasn't the only beneficiary. Several other AI stocks began huge runs around the same time. C3.ai and Nvidia have been the biggest winners, soaring nearly 280% and 195% year to date, respectively.
You could argue that Zuckerberg simply got lucky. Meta certainly didn't report any great news that lit a fire beneath its stock. The company's only press release prior to the start of its share price rebound was its 2022 third-quarter earnings announced on Oct. 26, 2022.
Meta's revenue fell 4% year over year in Q3. Its profits plunged 52%. Zuckerberg acknowledged in the quarterly conference call that the company was navigating "some challenging dynamics -- a volatile macroeconomy, increasing competition, ads signal loss, and growing costs from our long-term investments."
None of those dynamics changed dramatically over the next couple of months. What did change was that investors began to be excited about the potential of AI as a result of the ChatGPT launch. Meta, which has invested heavily in AI, was one of several boats that were lifted by the rising tide.
More than just AI
However, it would be a mistake to attribute all of the money Zuckerberg has made from his big stake in Meta this year to AI. One chart shows why.
Meta has handily outperformed Alphabet (GOOG 1.06%) (GOOGL 1.08%), Amazon (AMZN 0.58%), and Microsoft (MSFT -0.18%) so far in 2023. But those three stocks arguably should benefit from the AI boom more than Meta will.
Microsoft, in theory, should have been the biggest beneficiary from the ChatGPT fervor. After all, it owns a significant stake in OpenAI and has integrated ChatGPT into its products. Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft have launched new AI tools. They all operate cloud platforms that should enjoy greater demand as organizations scramble to adopt AI.
So why has Meta stock vaulted so much higher than these other AI stocks? Note that Meta really separated from the pack in early February. That's when the company announced its 2022 fourth-quarter results.
Meta's revenue and earnings declined year over year again in Q4. However, the company gave investors some reasons to be optimistic about the future. Its daily active users rose. Its cash position improved as well.
In April, Meta followed up with even more good news in its 2023 Q1 update, which spurred another big jump in its share price. Revenue increased from the prior-year period. Earnings easily beat Wall Street estimates. Meta also raised its full-year revenue guidance.
Are those billions about to evaporate?
Some might think that we're in an AI bubble that's about to burst. If so, Zuckerberg's $57 billion in gains could evaporate quickly. However, I don't think he has much to worry about.
Despite its major rebound, Meta remains more than 25% below its high set in the second half of 2021. More importantly, the stock's valuation still looks relatively attractive. Shares trade at 23 times expected earnings with a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.97.
Meta's cost-cutting initiatives still haven't made their full impact yet, either. I look for profits to improve over the coming quarters.
Finally, my hunch is that investors' interest in AI isn't about to die down. I like Meta's open-source AI strategy, something it should be able to pull off more effectively than the other tech giants. My prediction is that Zuckerberg will make many more billions of dollars in the years to come -- with a lot of it due to AI.
