After crashing 75% in 2022, Shopify (SHOP +2.65%) stock is off to a hot start in 2023, rising by 90% so far this year. The company has been cutting costs and focusing more on its bottom line, which has encouraged investors, even though the business isn't exactly booming as sales growth has slowed.
Today, Shopify shares are trading near their 52-week high and may be looking a bit expensive to some investors. Can the stock build on its recent gains and go even higher, or is it too late join in on the rally?
New tools could help accelerate growth
One reason to be bullish about Shopify's future growth is the company's launch of new services that can help drive increased sales for merchants. This summer, Shopify is introducing Markets Pro in the U.S., with the U.K. launch coming later on. Markets Pro helps merchants sell internationally by handling tax remittances, duties, and import taxes -- many of the headaches that might otherwise lead to merchants to avoid doing business in other countries.
NASDAQ: SHOP
Key Data Points
Shopify is also getting in on the artificial intelligence (AI) hype, offering users an AI assistant to help shop and find items with Shop.ai. The service can help shoppers find what they're looking for more efficiently while also providing them with personalized recommendations, potentially resulting in additional sales.
Getting a boost in revenue would be a big win for the company as Shopify's sales growth has fallen sharply over the past two years:
Data by YCharts.
Shopify's cash flow and bottom line should improve this year
Perhaps more important than just the top line, the rest of Shopify's financials should look better this year. The company has laid off staff and cut expenses in an effort to strengthen its prospects for profitability and improve cash flow. In the trailing 12 months, it has incurred operating losses totaling $822 million.
The company projects that it will produce positive free cash flow in each quarter of 2023. While Shopify has generated positive free cash flow in the past, doing so on a more consistent basis would help show investors that the business is on a better path to stable profits.
Data by YCharts.
Shopify also says that it expects to see more benefits from the sale of its logistics business and the reduction in its workforce toward the latter half of the year.
With improved financials, that may make the stock an even better buy than it is right now.
The stock price may not be that expensive
Shopify's stock is surging this year, but when you put it in the context of how much revenue the business generates (north of $1.2 billion in each of the past four quarters), it's still not that high given how much investors have been paying for the growth stock in the past with respect to sales:
Data by YCharts.
While it may not get back to the multiples it was trading at in the red-hot market of 2020 and 2021, Shopify's stock still looks relatively cheap compared to where its valuation was prior to the pandemic.
Is the stock a buy?
There may still be a tough road ahead for Shopify. Any economic downturn -- or recession -- in the U.S. and other major markets would undoubtedly have a negative impact on consumer spending. There's still a bit of uncertainty, but in the long run, the changes Shopify has made in the past year and improvements to its platform should offer the right combination of growth, cash flow, and more consistent profitability. In that context, there are plenty of reasons to remain bullish on Shopify's future.
Even if a downturn does take place and Shopify hits a rough patch, it's likely to be a temporary one. The moves Shopify is making today should set up the stock for even greater gains in the future. If you're willing to hang on for at least a few years, this can still be a great stock to buy right now.
