What happened
After seven straight days of nonstop share price declines, space tourism stock Virgin Galactic (SPCE +8.57%) finally stopped sliding this morning, and its shares turned around and moved higher. As of 10 a.m. ET, Virgin Galactic stock is up a modest 3.1%.
And Galactic 04 is the reason.
NYSE: SPCE
Key Data Points
So what
This morning, Virgin Galactic confirmed an Oct. 5 likely launch date for its fourth paying space tourist flight, Galactic 04, which will also be the company's fifth space flight in five months. By all indications, the company is sticking to its plan to launch one spaceplane per month, fulfilling a promise made earlier this year.
Investors are clearly happy to see Virgin Galactic keeping to this commitment. The longer the company maintains this once-per-month pace for spaceflight, the more confident investors should become that management knows what it is doing.
Yet questions loom.
Now what
Which questions? For one thing, Galactic says that Galactic 04 will carry two pilots, an "astronaut instructor," and three paying passengers -- just like Galactic 03 earlier this month. But when originally designed, Virgin Space Ship (VSS) Unity was supposed to be rated to carry a couple of pilots and six paying passengers.
So where are the other three?
Moreover, Virgin Galactic is currently spending more than $40 million per month on operating costs. But three paying passengers, times the presumed $250,000 cost of each of their tickets, equals just $750,000 in revenue. And so, the second question:
How does Virgin Galactic plan to square that math and earn a profit?
And speaking of profits, here's the last question: Reporting earnings last month, Virgin Galactic told investors it expects to record only $1 million in revenue this quarter (and next quarter, too). Yet Galactic 04 will be its second spaceflight in the quarter. Granted, $750,000 isn't a lot of revenue, but $750,000 times two spaceflights should equal $1.5 million in revenue.
So why is the company saying it will record one-third less revenue than that?
Until Virgin Galactic at least starts to answer these kinds of questions, I'd expect to see its stock price keep bouncing around quite a bit.
