The stock market regained its mojo in 2023 thanks to multiple factors, including cooling inflation and a resilient economy. It also benefitted from a terrific rally in technology stocks driven by the popularity of artificial intelligence (AI) applications. That rally helped the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector index grow an impressive 40% so far this year.
Tech stocks that benefitted include Confluent (CFLT +0.00%) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI +0.41%), which saw sharp jumps in 2023. While share prices of Confluent are up 33% this year, Super Micro Computer has jumped an astonishing 247% so far in 2023. Investors who were fortuitous enough to put $1,000 in these two growth stocks at the end of last year are sitting on nice gains right now.
But what if you missed the rally in these two stocks and you have $1,000 in cash right now that isn't needed to pay monthly bills, to clear any high-interest debt, and/or to set aside for a rainy day? Should you buy Confluent and Super Micro Computer with that money in anticipation of more upside? Let's find out.
1. Confluent
Confluent is a cloud-based data streaming provider whose offerings allow its customers to connect their data and process it in real time, as opposed to the traditional way of storing data in silos and processing it later on in batches. As a result, Confluent customers can accelerate their decision-making processes and quickly respond to developments in their businesses.
NASDAQ: CFLT
Key Data Points
The company witnessed terrific demand for its offerings, with its customer base jumping tenfold from 2018 to 2022. Confluent sustained its impressive momentum in 2023. The company's revenue in the first six months of 2023 increased 37% year over year to $364 million. Confluent expects to finish the year with almost $770 million in revenue at the midpoint of its guidance range, which would translate into a 31% boost.
More importantly, analysts expect Confluent to sustain its healthy growth momentum over the next couple of years.
CFLT Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts
That's unsurprising, as the company's addressable market is set to expand rapidly. Confluent estimates its total addressable market (TAM) was $60 billion last year. That number is forecast to jump to $100 billion in 2025, clocking an annual growth rate of 19%. Confluent is growing at a faster pace than the market in which it operates thanks to the company's fast-growing customer base and higher customer spending.
Confluent finished Q2 of 2023 with 4,830 customers, an increase of 17% from the prior year. The number of customers with annual recurring revenue (ARR) of more than $100,000 increased 33% year over year. Customers with an ARR of over $1 million increased at a faster pace of 48%.
All this explains why Confluent exited Q2 with a remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $791 million, a 34% increase over the prior year. According to Confluent, this metric refers to the "estimated amount of contracted future revenue," so its robust growth points toward a solid revenue pipeline. It wouldn't be surprising to see Confluent hit 2025's $1.25 billion revenue estimate. That estimate suggests Confluent's revenue could increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% from 2023 to 2025.
Assuming that the company can sustain a 25% revenue growth rate in 2026 and 2027, its top line could hit almost $2 billion in five years. Multiplying the projected 2027 revenue by a price-to-sales ratio of 10 -- which represents a discount to Confluent's current sales multiple of 13 -- points toward a market cap of $20 billion by then. That would be more than double Confluent's current market cap of $9 billion.
So investors with $1,000 in investible cash could see their money double over the next five years by buying Confluent stock, which is why they may want to buy this growth stock before it soars higher.
2. Super Micro Computer
Super Micro Computer has more than tripled investors' money in 2023 so far, but this fast-growing company still has a lot of room for growth. After all, Super Micro benefits from the proliferation of AI.
The company specializes in making power-efficient servers, which are witnessing a spurt in demand thanks to AI adoption. That's not surprising, as AI servers reportedly use more than 4x the electricity as a traditional data center server. Given that Super Micro has gained expertise in making energy-efficient servers over the years, customers are lining up to buy its solutions.
NASDAQ: SMCI
Key Data Points
This explains why Super Micro anticipates its fiscal 2024 revenue to land between $9.5 billion and $10.5 billion, translating to a jump of 33% to 47%. It is worth noting that Super Micro's revenue in fiscal 2023 grew by a handsome 37% to $7.1 billion. Even better, Super Micro is confident it can sustain its solid growth, forecasting its "$20 billion annual revenue target to be just a couple of years away."
Even if Super Micro takes an additional two years to hit that mark instead of hitting it in fiscal 2026 (which is the year management referenced in its forecast), the company's top line would increase at a solid CAGR of 23% over the next five years (based on its fiscal 2023 revenue of $7.1 billion). It wouldn't be surprising to see Super Micro achieve that target earlier considering its focus on capacity expansion and the secular growth opportunity in the AI server market, but for the sake of conservatism, let's assume it takes five years to hit that mark.
Super Micro has a sales multiple of 2.2 right now, which is quite cheap when compared to the eye-popping growth it has been delivering. Even if it trades at 2 times sales after five years and hits $20 billion in annual revenue, its market cap could increase to $40 billion. That would be a significant jump over its current market cap of $15 billion, indicating that a $1,000 investment in Super Micro could more than double over the next five years.
So investors would do well to add this high-growth company to their portfolios if they have $1,000 to spare considering the tremendous upside it is likely to deliver.
