Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE 0.48%) has accomplished a lot in 2023, but investors are more focused on the difficulties that lie ahead. Shares of the space stock traded down about 7.5% as of 1 p.m. Wednesday after one Wall Street analyst warned of a "catalyst-lull" up ahead.
This space stock sees very little revenue on the horizon
Virgin Galactic has had its shares of ups and downs during its short time as a public company. The stock soared in 2020 and 2021 on investor excitement about the potential for space tourism but fell back to Earth as the complexity of routinely shuttling tourists into orbit became clear.
The stock today trades about 96% below its all-time high.
Earlier this month, the company laid out a business plan that calls for a lot of investment and little revenue. Virgin Galactic said it intends to reduce the frequency of its revenue-generating commercial flights and halt them entirely by mid-2024 to concentrate resources, and cash, on its next generation of spaceships.
With that new Delta space vehicle not expected to begin commercial flights until 2026, there isn't much reason for investors to buy in now. On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight, and lowered the firm's price target to $1.75, from $4.
Liwag sees long-term potential in Virgin Galactic's business, but limited opportunity for price acceleration for now due to a "catalyst-lull period on the horizon."
Down 96% from its highs, is Virgin Galactic a buy?
The good news for investors is that the company believes it has the cash to survive the winter. Virgin Galactic ended its most recent quarter with $1.1 billion in cash on hand, and management said that a combination of layoffs and fundraising activities means it has enough money to complete development of two Delta vehicles and begin commercial service in 2026.
But the story of Virgin Galactic has been one of rosy predictions for the future, and little to show for it for now. Space is complicated, and Virgin Galactic in the past has seen projects go over budget and fall behind schedule as it works out unexpected kinks.
Given the risks, and the long wait for a payoff, Liwag is correct in seeing little reason for investors to hold for now. Investors interested in the potential of Virgin Galactic need not jump in today, as the stock will likely be grounded for the foreseeable future.