Since ChatGPT was released a year ago, the tech world has been grappling with massive disruption from artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots. In fact, OpenAI's ChatGPT has the potential to disrupt some of Alphabet's search business -- itself a massively disruptive product introduced just 25 years ago.
So now the question is, what will be the next thing that could disrupt ChatGPT?
Given recent strides in quantum computing, the answer may be coming sooner than you think. The leader in the field, IonQ (IONQ 0.20%), has a big year coming up, during which its technology could make some key commercial breakthroughs.
NYSE: IONQ
Key Data Points
Can quantum computing disrupt AI?
For those who don't know about quantum computing, the technology is pretty crazy. Basically, whereas traditional computing stores information in bits signified by 1 or 0, quantum computing stores information in qubits, which occupy varying degrees of 1 or 0 states simultaneously in what is called superposition.
To achieve this, a laser stimulates an ion in an isolated electromagnetic or vacuum chamber, causing the ion to enter a probabilistic dual state with properties of both a particle and a wave simultaneously. Extremely precise lasers then measure the ion, calculating the different probabilities of its dual states.
By opening up the 1-0 binary code of classical computing to infinitely more permutations, the upshot is that quantum computing has the potential to do massive calculations that classical computers cannot, at least not within a reasonable time frame. These use cases include modeling new materials for materials science and pharmaceutical applications, cryptography applications, and other optimization modeling involving a massive number of factors and possibilities.
Quantum computing hasn't become mainstream because, well, the science is extremely difficult to pull off and isn't mature yet. But it could be very close: IonQ believes it has made a number of breakthroughs now, moving it from the research stage to the commercialization stage as soon as next year. If the company reaches a few key milestones it has laid out for itself, the quantum industry -- and IonQ, specifically -- could take off in a big way.
A ChatGPT moment coming in 2024-2025
In his letter to shareholders accompanying the 2022 annual report, CEO Peter Chapman wrote that he expects quantum computing to have its own ChatGPT-like moment within the next two years. That would, of course, be a massive event.
There has already been tangible progress toward that goal in 2023. In 2023, IonQ achieved a system with 29 algorithmic qubits, or #AQ 29, which is a shorthand IonQ invented to track the power of its quantum computing systems. But each AQ number is more than just a linear improvement; it's an exponential improvement. For instance, if #AQ 5 is the quantum computing equivalent of the tip of a magic marker, #AQ 29 is the size of a basketball court.
And #AQ 64, which the company hopes to achieve in 2025, would be equivalent to the size of the land mass of the United States!
So far this year, the company has sold four systems, logging $58.4 million in year-to-date bookings. These systems are mainly for research purposes, with two large customers being the U.S. Air Force Research Lab and Switzerland's QuantumBasel, which serves enterprises and governments in Europe.
#AQ 35 in 2024 and #AQ 64 in 2025
The next year will be so momentous because IonQ believes it will commercialize its #AQ 35 Forte systems in 2024. This will be an important milestone, as the #AQ 35 machine will be the first to exceed the capabilities of classical computing for machine learning. Management believes that the first display of commercial advantage over traditional computing will spur more commercial uses for the technology, essentially making the leap from the research stage to the commercial stage.
In 2025, the company hopes to achieve #AQ 64, which will use a new type of process to reduce the errors inherent in quantum computing systems. Because quantum computing is such a delicate process, errors inevitably pop up due to quantum "noise." Quantum systems get around this through a process called error correction. But that involves a lot of redundancy, storing the same information among many qubits.
If there are discrepancies in the information, the error correction process takes a "majority vote" to filter out errors in qubits, combining many error-filled qubits into one optimized "logical qubit." But the numbers get enormous as some approaches require 1,000 or even 100,000 qubits to form one logical qubit.
To scale to #AQ 64, IonQ will use a new software-based technique it developed called error mitigation rather than full error correction. This software-based modeling technique will require far fewer qubits than full error correction to make an error-corrected logical qubit. That innovation will allow IonQ to achieve #AQ 64 with less qubit "overhead," which is important for commercialization. The new error mitigation technique will also allow IonQ to scale even higher to its ultimate goal of #AQ 1024 by 2028.
What to look out for in the year ahead
IonQ won't be making any profits anytime soon. So, the main things for investors to look out for in the year ahead are technical achievements, such as error mitigation, and getting the #AQ 35 to market. It's also possible that by the end of the year, a customer will begin using the #AQ 35 in a commercial use case, which could spur interest in the technology and, of course, the stock.
The possibility for a ChatGPT-like moment with the introduction of #AQ 35 in 2024 makes IonQ an interesting speculative play. There could be a lot of upside if IonQ is first to market with commercial quantum computing.
However, investors should remember it is still very early in the quantum industry, with more significant technological hurdles to clear. So, be sure to size any IonQ position in your portfolio according to your risk appetite, which likely means keeping it small. Nevertheless, IonQ is a name every technology investor should at least be tracking in 2024.
