Three straight days of share price declines came to an end for Fisker (FSR +0.00%) on Friday. Investors cheered news that the electric car start-up will attend next week's National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show in Las Vegas -- and livestream an interview announcing its plans to set up a car dealer network -- setting up Fisker stock for an 4.5% run higher (through 2 p.m. ET).
With Fisker stock selling for less than $0.80 a share -- down from a pandemic-era high of more than $28 per share -- investors may be wondering...
OTC: FSR
Key Data Points
Is Fisker stock a buy?
I'll answer this right up front: No. I do not believe Fisker stock is a buy. With less than $1.2 billion in cash on the books, and a cash burn rate of more than $800 million per year, simple math suggests that Fisker will run out of cash within the next two years, and probably go bust. I would therefore not buy Fisker stock.
However...
A Hail Mary hope for Fisker
That being said, I could be wrong about this, and looked at from one -- particularly hopeful -- perspective, there actually is an argument to be made that Fisker is a great buy right now, if only it can find a way to stay alive a few more years.
Rummaging through analyst forecasts for Fisker's financial future, you see, I noticed that in 2027 -- the year analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence believe that Fisker will finally become profitable -- the forecast is for Fisker to earn a per-share profit of $0.93.
Which, you'll notice, is more profit per share than Fisker stock currently costs.
The fact is, if you're really, really optimistic about this stock -- which currently isn't earning any profit, and probably won't earn any profit for the next three years -- Wall Street is at least holding out the remote prospect of Fisker earning so much money four years from now that the stock sells for a valuation of less than 1x fiscal 2027 earnings. That's a very long-dated "forward P/E ratio" of less than 1.
Granted, as investment theses go, this one falls under the category of an extreme Hail Mary. It ignores all the things that need to go right for Fisker in 2024, 2025, and 2026, and requires faith that Fisker will still be alive and solvent to see those profits in 2027. It assumes the company won't have to sell a whole lot of shares to raise the cash needed to remain solvent until 2027, so that the $0.93 per share doesn't get diluted by the issuance of new shares.
But I suppose it could happen. And if you're buying Fisker stock today, this is probably the hope you want to cling to.
