Last fall, Plug Power (PLUG +11.62%) issued a dire warning. The hydrogen company projected at that time that it didn't have enough liquidity to fund its operations through the next year. That caused investors to worry that it might not be able to continue as a going concern.
However, those concerns are now in the rearview mirror. Plug Power has plugged the holes in its liquidity and how has the fuel to continue operating. Here's a look at whether that makes the hydrogen stock a buy.
NASDAQ: PLUG
Key Data Points
Shoring up its liquidity
Plug Power recently reported its fourth-quarter and full-year results for 2023. The company noted that it has now resolved the going concern issues it raised at the end of the third quarter. It has sufficient cash on hand and available liquidity to fund its operations for the foreseeable future.
The company has taken several steps to shore up its financial position. Last month, it unveiled a cost-reduction plan that will save it about $75 million per year. It also entered into an agreement with investment bank B. Riley Financial for an at-the-market (ATM) offering to raise up to $1 billion in cash. Like an ATM machine, this arrangement will enable the company to get cash when needed by selling stock to B. Riley Financial. Plug is also working to finalize a loan agreement with the Department of Energy for a $1.6 billion loan facility. As a result, the company now believes it has the cash and liquidity sources to continue operating.
However, Plug Power doesn't plan to stop there. CEO Andy Marsh stated in the company's fourth-quarter earnings release, "Recognizing the past challenges with cash management, we are dedicated in 2024 to bolstering our financial profile." The company aims to optimize its financial operations to make sure it has the financial flexibility to capitalize on future market opportunities.
The case for buying Plug Power
With the hole in its liquidity plugged, the company can focus on capitalizing on the massive opportunity ahead for hydrogen. According to Deloitte, the global hydrogen market will eclipse the value of the worldwide liquefied natural gas (LNG) market by the end of this decade. It could reach a jaw-dropping $1.4 trillion by 2050.
Plug Power is investing heavily to capitalize on this massive growth opportunity. It recently commissioned its Georgia hydrogen plant, the largest of its kind in the country. It's developing several others across the country and in Europe. The company believes these investments will grow its revenue from $891 million last year to as much as $20 billion by 2030.
That exponential revenue growth should enable Plug Power to start generating profits and cash flow, allowing it to fund its expansion internally. That growth could give the company's stock the fuel to rally spectacularly in the future.
The case against Plug Power
While Plug Power holds lots of promise, it also has lots of issues. A big problem is that it's losing money hand over fist. Plug Power posted a staggering $1.4 billion loss last year -- nearly double 2022's total -- on only $891 million in revenue (27% more than 2022). On one hand, that was partly due to writing down $325 million of assets. However, even after adjusting for that non-cash charge, Plug still lost over $1 billion last year, even though revenue increased. The driver was its heavy investments in growth.
The company's mounting losses have cost shareholders dearly. Shares are down a gut-wrenching 75% over the past year. They've now lost nearly 97% of their value since the company went public more than 20 years ago.
Because the company is losing so much money, it has had to sell stock to fund its operations. That's driven up its outstanding shares. They're up over 170% over the last five years and 348% over the past decade. They will likely continue climbing as the company issues more through its ATM program. At its current $2.3 billion market cap, its ATM program would increase its outstanding shares by more than 40%. That could put more downward pressure on the stock price.
Plug needs to demonstrate it can deliver
Plug Power holds tremendous promise as it seeks to capitalize on the potentially massive hydrogen opportunity. However, the company has been an abysmal investment over the years as it has failed to live up to its potential.
With its business still bleeding money and its share count likely to keep rising, it could continue to struggle to create value for shareholders in the near term. It's an extremely high-risk bet right now. While it could pay off spectacularly over the long term, it could also continue to lose money for investors. Given the high risk of a loss, investors might want to wait to see if the company can finally start delivering on its promise before buying shares.
