Shares of Shopify (SHOP +3.94%), the most popular e-commerce software platform in the U.S., have risen by more than 2,000% since going public in 2015. The S&P 500, for comparison, rose by just 195% over the same period.
The best news is that Shopify stock could rise another 2,000% in the years to come. If you're looking for stocks with massive upside, this one's for you.
NASDAQ: SHOP
Key Data Points
Shopify has a massive lead on the competition and it's not even close
There are two critical factors to pay attention to when it comes to Shopify. The first is the competitive landscape. In this regard, Shopify is undoubtedly king.
When most people think of e-commerce, they think of companies like Amazon, which sell products and services online. But there's another type of e-commerce business, and that's platforms that allow others to set up digital storefronts of their own. Shopify, for instance, doesn't run any of its own stores. Instead, millions of merchants run their stores using Shopify's platform. Small home businesses use Shopify-powered stores, but so do major brands, including Nike, Allbirds, and Red Bull.
Let's say you want to start selling online. You could list your products on Amazon, but you'll have to give the company anywhere from 8% to 45% of your sales. Shopify, meanwhile, takes only a small percentage of your sales as a fee, and in return gives you all the things you need to establish a successful e-commerce business. That includes web design templates, marketing and analytics tools, inventory management dashboards, payment processing, and more. You won't have the immediate reach of a platform like Amazon, but you'll have more tools, customization options, and functionality, plus you'll retain a much greater portion of your sales.
According to data compiled by Statista, Shopify has a 28% market share for e-commerce platforms in the U.S. WooCommerce commands an 18% market share, while Wix comes in third with 17%. Total e-commerce spending, meanwhile, is on the rise. In 2019, e-commerce spending in the U.S. totaled $540 million. Last year, it surpassed $1 billion. By 2029, it's expected to approach $1.9 billion. E-commerce platforms like Shopify, then, are swimming in a bigger and bigger pool of potential customers. As you'll see, there's a good chance Shopify will not only maintain its current industry lead but expand on it in the years to come.
Artificial intelligence could put this stock on steroids
The second reason to love Shopify stock right now is that it's perfectly positioned to benefit from the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). E-commerce platforms like Shopify, WooCommerce, and Wix all compete a bit on price. But what they compete on most is functionality and user experience. Whichever platform makes its platform more powerful and easier to use wins.
With the largest market share, Shopify has an early lead. AI should accelerate this lead even further in the years to come. That's because Shopify has the resources to attract the most AI developers to its platform. Right now, any developer can add more functionality to Shopify's platform, earning money whenever users decide to incorporate the new tool or service. Developers know that Shopify offers them the largest potential user base to monetize their creations. Already, the company has dozens of AI apps and features that users can implement in a few clicks -- everything from chatbots to automated content creation. As AI takes off, expect Shopify to benefit, gaining more market share in an already large and growing market.
How big could Shopify get? After a recent pullback, the company is valued at just $75 billion. Amazon, for comparison, is worth around $1.9 trillion. Shopify would have more than 2,000% in upside if it reached Amazon's size. To be clear, Amazon is a far more diverse and far larger business than Shopify. It will take years or even decades for Shopify to attain a $1 trillion market cap, let alone a $2 trillion market cap. But it is businesses like this that can sustain growth for long enough to reach this enormous size.
The global e-commerce market is clearly large enough to accommodate a Shopify 10 or 20 times its current size. Keep in mind, this underlying market is still growing by around 10% annually. Much of that growth will be directed to large, consolidated e-commerce sites like Amazon. But independent stores, such as those powered by Shopify, will also take an increasing amount of this new market growth. After a 25% decline in share price over the last 90 days -- a drop fueled by short-term concerns over quarterly guidance -- this is a great time to back up the truck for a high-quality business with a massive long-term growth runway.
