I wish I had been wrong, but it turns out I was right. Boeing's (BA 0.79%) first crewed spaceflight to the International Space Station (ISS) is a bust.
Ever since launching astronauts Sunita Williams and Butch Wilmore on Starliner on June 5 and delivering them at the space station the next day for a planned eight-day visit, things have gone downhill for Boeing. Even worse, Boeing has no one but itself to blame.
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Key Data Points
A troubled beginning
If you recall, Boeing delayed launching Starliner more than once. It decided to launch in June despite never quite completely solving an epidemic of sticky valves and persistent helium leaks plaguing the craft. Nor did these problems go away once Starliner reached the harsh environment of space. Instead, the issues multiplied.
En route to the ISS and even after docking, Starliner sprang five helium leaks in its propulsion system and reported four malfunctioning thrusters. Within weeks of arrival, NASA was already making contingency plans in case it couldn't get Starliner patched up, and contemplating calling a rival space company to rescue its astronauts.
In late August, NASA confirmed this is exactly what it will do. SpaceX will have to rescue the two astronauts that Boeing stranded.
Assemble the rescue party
At a press conference on Aug. 24 -- one at which Boeing was notably absent -- NASA announced plans to detach Starliner from ISS early next month and bring it back to Earth without its crew. As for astronauts Williams and Wilmore, they'll be asked to remain on ISS until at least February 2025 (they were supposed to be back home in June 2024).
Meantime, NASA will proceed with sending a SpaceX Crew Dragon to ISS -- the Crew-9 mission -- on Sept. 24. Crew-9 will carry only two (instead of the planned four) astronauts to the station. Then, when it comes time for them to return home in February, the Crew Dragon will use its two empty seats to fetch Williams and Wilmore back home as well.
NASA explained its decision by noting that, despite nearly three months of work trying to nail down and fix the problems with Starliner at ISS, the vessel still "does not meet the agency's safety and performance requirements for human spaceflight."
Because crew safety is paramount, NASA will not allow the astronauts to fly on Starliner again.
What this means for Boeing
Given all the troubles Boeing has had getting Starliner to work right, you might think it would at this point throw up its hands and give up. (And you wouldn't be alone.) But there are problems with taking that course of action, should Boeing decide to do so.
Boeing operates (or more precisely, is trying to operate) Starliner on a fixed-price contract with NASA. Valued at $4.2 billion when originally awarded 10 years ago, and later raised to $5.1 billion, this contract obligates Boeing to conduct "at least one crewed flight test" to and from the ISS, followed by "at least two, and as many as six, crewed missions to the space station."
So far, Boeing has conducted half of a crewed flight test -- this one -- and zero crewed "missions" post-flight test.
Boeing still must conduct at least two more missions, and ideally six, in order to be entitled to the full $5.1 billion (most of which Boeing has already spent, by the way). But it can't conduct those crewed missions until after completing its test flight. And with Starliner coming home without its crew, there's a very strong argument that the test flight will remain incomplete even if Starliner returns safely.
Boeing's losses loom large
If that's how NASA sees things, then Boeing has a dilemma. First and foremost, it must figure out what went wrong with Starliner on this flight, fix it, and get ready to fly again -- all of which costs money. Then, it may have to rerun its test flight -- which costs more money. Only then would Boeing be ready to conduct operational crewed missions for which it would be paid.
Complicating matters further, all this while, the clock is ticking on the ISS itself, which is slated for decommissioning after 2030. Even if everything goes 100% right for Boeing from here on out, there may simply not be enough time left on the ISS's calendar to conduct more than three or four operational missions with Starliner.
What all this comes down to for Boeing is a pair of bad choices: Option 1 is to abandon the Starliner program, renege on its NASA contract, and take a huge charge to earnings for the lost revenue. (And that's on top of the $1.6 billion in charges Boeing has already taken on Starliner). Option 2 is to try to get Starliner back on track -- probably still fail to run all the missions it was hoping to run -- and therefore take a slightly less huge writedown.
Any way you cut it, though, Starliner is going to cost Boeing money. The only question at this point is: How much?
