Shares of Rumble (RUM +5.08%), the social media site that's seen as a conservative version of YouTube, were sliding today, seemingly in response to last night's presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Most media outlets seemed to consider Harris to be the winner.
In response to the news, Rumble stock was down 6.7% as of 2:04 p.m. ET. Fellow traveler Trump Media & Technology, which owns Trump's Truth Social media site, also fell on the news, down 12.9% at the same time.
Image source: Getty Images.
Rumble gets roughed up
Stocks like Rumble and Trump Media trade to some degree as avatars of Donald Trump's influence and that of his followers and the broader political movement.
With Trump generally regarded as the loser of last night's debate, investors believe that will negatively impact Rumble, which depends largely on content from conservative, Trump-supporting voices, and advertisers that want to market to them.
According to a RealClearPolitics' betting average taken from multiple betting markets, Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidency fell from 52% yesterday to 47% today, a relatively large swing in one day.
Betting markets aren't necessarily accurate, but they do reflect the belief that Trump's chances of winning have diminished after last night.
NASDAQ: RUM
Key Data Points
What it means for Rumble
Rumble was founded in 2013 as an alternative to YouTube before Trump became a political figure, but, like other conservative sites like Gab and Parler, its relevancy is now closely associated with Trump.
Conservatives have sought out such sites to escape the scrutiny and restrictions of more mainstream social media outlets.
Rumble is still a small company with $79 million in revenue over the last four quarters and is deeply unprofitable with an operating loss of $150 million during that time.
Considering YouTube's dominance of the user-created video marketplace, Rumble seems likely to have a tough time gaining scale and becoming profitable, especially if the Trump campaign falters.
Expect the stock to continue to move according to election news.
