We throw the word "game-changing" out a little too often, but QuantumScape's (QS 3.64%) next-generation solid-state battery technology could be just that. Imagine a battery for electric vehicles (EVs) that delivers better performance and range, discharge power, charging speed, and safety. That's what QuantumScape hopes to deliver to automakers, but there's one problem: Nobody has ever done it.
However, there's a little good news for QuantumScape investors.
What's happening?
Recently, during QuantumScape's third quarter, the company announced that it had begun producing low volumes of its first B-sample cells, which was its single most important goal of 2024. These cells are important because they're being shipped to automotive customers for testing purposes.
It's a big deal. According to the company, it's an industry milestone because "to the best of [QuantumScape's] knowledge," it's the first anode-free solid-state lithium-metal cell design ever produced for automotive applications.
With this milestone under its belt, QuantumScape now moves into a different phase of B-sample testing. This will take months to complete as automakers put the samples through rigorous testing and QuantumScape reincorporates the feedback into the product and production process.
What's next?
As the company works with its automotive partners to refine the product and process, management notes that the next step is to significantly improve cell reliability, yield, and productivity. There's one kicker, though: To do those things, the company needs higher production volume.
That's when investors should look toward the company's "Cobra" process, which is scheduled for 2025. QuantumScape believes Cobra production will significantly increase separator production, and that it remains the best pathway to gigawatt-hour scale production.
After that comes the next step toward commercialization with the company's hugely important agreement with PowerCo, the battery manufacturing subsidiary of Volkswagen Group. Upon satisfactory technical progress and specific royalty payments, QuantumScape will give PowerCo the license to mass-produce battery cells based on the former's technology platform.
More specifically, when granted the non-exclusive license, PowerCo will be allowed to manufacture up to 40 gigawatt-hours (GWh) annually with the option to expand to 80 GWh annually. That's roughly enough to equip about one million vehicles per year.
What it all means
The main thing for investors to take away from this news is that QuantumScape is making slow and steady progress. Better yet, it has a plan moving from this point toward commercialization, which is when this stock could really reward patient investors.
For investors, the next major aspect to watch will be the results that the automotive customers find while extensively testing QuantumScape's B-samples. If those tests come back with positive results, expect the hype to return to QuantumScape ahead of its 2025 Cobra ramp-up of sample cells.
QuantumScape is still years away from rewarding investors, and this stock will remain highly speculative for the time being. But the company sending out sample cells for automotive testing is certainly great news for long-term QuantumScape investors.
