Super Micro Computer (SMCI +3.61%) has been one of the most polarizing stocks to own this year. It started out as a hot artificial intelligence (AI) company with mammoth potential, but it has recently become a risky investment with questionable and potentially inflated numbers due to poor accounting controls and procedures.
Some investors believe the company has put the fears about its business to rest after an independent, special board committee recently reviewed its operations and found no evidence of any wrongdoing by either management or the board of directors. The stock has been rallying again, but it's still down more than 60% from its 52-week high of $122.90.
If the company proves its doubters wrong, Supermicro could be destined for even greater gains in the weeks and months ahead. Could it be due for a huge rally in 2025?
NASDAQ: SMCI
Key Data Points
Why have investors been so bearish on Supermicro?
There have been three main issues that appear to have been weighing on Supermicro's valuation this year:
- The company's gross margins have been shrinking. This is a considerable issue because without strong margins, its prospects for growing its bottom line worsen, and that can make the stock a much worse buy.
- Hindenburg Research, a notable short-seller, released a report in August claiming that Supermicro was involved in accounting manipulation and was effectively inflating its numbers.
- The company's auditor, Ernst & Young, resigned in October, which raised concerns about its internal controls and exacerbated worries about the reliability of its financials. The company is also late on reporting its quarterly and annual filings.
The tech stock has been falling in recent months due to these concerns. But with the company recently announcing that it had found a new auditor in BDO and that a special committee didn't find any evidence of wrongdoing, investors appear to be more bullish on the stock lately since it has been rising in recent weeks.
What needs to happen for 2025 to be a strong year for Supermicro?
For Supermicro to put fears around its business to rest, at least for the most part, it needs to produce solid audited financials. If it can do that, it should be successful in winning back many investors who may be worried that it's too risky.
The company has obtained an extension from Nasdaq to file its financials by Feb. 25. If its new auditor signs off on the annual results and the numbers look good and margins improve, that could be what the stock needs to regain investors' confidence.
Until that happens, however, there's going to be some considerable risk and uncertainty surrounding the stock. In its most recently completed filings, which were for the period ending June 30, Supermicro posted sales of $5.3 billion, up 143% year over year as demand for its IT infrastructure, including cloud and server solutions, has been incredibly strong.
Net income of $352.7 million also increased at a fairly high rate of 82%, despite the company reporting a light gross profit margin of just 11.2%.
If the company can show these numbers are correct by providing audited full-year financials, and still grow its business at a high rate, there could be some big gains for the tech stock in 2025.
Is Supermicro worth buying today?
Investors have been quick to buy up Supermicro on the recent news that it has found a new auditor and positive findings from the special committee. But the risk is still there. The business hasn't reported its financials yet, and that's what ultimately matters the most.
This has been a highly volatile stock to own this year, and that trend may continue into 2025. While there hasn't been any new bad news to weigh on the stock, investors should tread carefully with Super Micro Computer. The best option at this stage may be a wait-and-see approach with the stock.
