Shares of makeup conglomerate Estee Lauder (EL 4.60%) plunged 23% through Thursday trading this week, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The company reported earnings on Tuesday, and while reported results actually beat expectations, they still showed declining revenue and profits. Moreover, management forecast continued declines for the March quarter.
New CEO Stéphane de La Faverie also announced a shakeup of the business called "Beauty Reimagined." While a major restructuring may be warranted, it could also be a sign of significant problems that need to be remedied and could take time.
NYSE: EL
Key Data Points
Continued declines in China led the way
Estee Lauder's fiscal second quarter, which ended in December, showed a continuation of the poor trends the company has experienced over the past year. Revenue declined 6% to $4.0 billion, and adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share fell an even more severe 29% to $0.62. Management also guided for another 8% to 10% decline in revenue for March and for adjusted EPS to fall another 70% to just $0.29 at the midpoint of guidance ranges.
In a somewhat ominous sign, the company also took goodwill write-downs of the Tom Ford and Too Faced brands, indicating those acquired brands may not regain their prior luster anytime soon.
Not surprisingly, Estee Lauder's struggles continued to center on China and the weak consumer spending environment there, along with declines in the Asia Travel business, which consists mostly of Chinese travelers buying products abroad. Overall, the Asia/Pacific segment fell 11%, compared with a 6% decline for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. A bright spot, if one can call it that, was The Americas, where revenue was only down 2% but actually flat on a constant currency basis.
Can "Beauty Reimagined" reimagine Estee Lauder's growth trajectory?
Attempting to pivot the business, new CEO Stéphane de La Faverie announced a reinvention plan called "Beauty Reimagined" in conjunction with earnings.
The plan includes a bunch of different elements, some of which seem contradictory. On the one hand, management calls for innovating faster, increasing Estee's "presence" in front of certain consumer segments, and increasing marketing investments. On the other hand, the plan also calls for cost cuts and efficiencies, mainly through new procurement processes and eliminating bureaucratic layers to decrease complexity.
Rather than a huge transformation, these measures -- better product innovation, marketing, and back-end efficiencies -- just seem like the basics of running a good business, rather than anything transformative. Of note, de La Faverie, while new as CEO, has been with the company for 14 years. So, he's certainly not an "outsider," bringing fresh eyes to the struggling company. That being said, he did just become CEO on Jan. 1, so it's not surprising to see him branding his strategy as something wholly different and a break from the past.
So, while "Beauty Reimagined" could potentially lead to improvements, those improvements will likely be incremental rather than a sudden reversal of Estee Lauder's earnings trajectory.
In order for a true turnaround to happen, it will likely take a bigger macroeconomic turnaround in China, along with better execution from the company. While the new CEO may be doing the right things, it doesn't mean the turnaround story is a buy just yet. There's no "silver bullet" to make things better quickly here.
