Archer Aviation (ACHR -1.51%) has been in the spotlight recently, and not just because its stock has soared over 200% in the past year. A scathing short-seller report from Culper Research accused the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft company of systematically misleading investors about its development progress. The report alleges everything from timeline misrepresentations to questionable flight test claims.
As someone who covers Archer Aviation regularly, I'll admit the report raises some legitimate concerns that deserve investor attention. But after reviewing the evidence and considering the broader context, I'm not selling my shares. Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
Aviation timelines are notoriously optimistic
Let's start with the elephant in the room: Yes, Archer Aviation's publicly stated development timelines are likely highly optimistic. The company has repeatedly accelerated its commercial launch targets, most recently promising United Arab Emirates (UAE) operations by late 2025 despite originally targeting 2026.
But here's the thing: This is incredibly common in the aviation industry, and doubly so for an entirely new form of flight like electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. Boeing's 787 Dreamliner was delayed by more than three years. Airbus's A380 faced similar setbacks. SpaceX has missed countless launch deadlines (though they eventually deliver). The Federal Aviation Administration's certification processes are notoriously unpredictable.
When you're pioneering electric aircraft that take off like helicopters and fly like airplanes, delays should be expected -- not shocking. The real question isn't whether Archer Aviation hits every timeline. It's whether the company is making credible technical progress toward commercial viability.
The "fraud" thesis feels overblown
Culper Research's core argument is that Archer Aviation is purposely misleading shareholders. They've taken what could be called a "short sell with receipts" approach -- citing documented timeline discrepancies and selectively analyzed footage as evidence of deception.
I'll give Culper credit: They did their homework. The inconsistencies between Archer Aviation's public statements and internal communications with the Salinas Fire Department are concerning and merit clarification. The photos showing Archer Aviation's Midnight aircraft in partial assembly in April 2025, shortly after claiming it was "fully assembled," deserve a direct response.
Unfortunately, Archer Aviation's response so far has been defensive and dismissive. In its only public refutation of these claims as of this writing, the company stated: "Christian Lamarco has a reputation for 'shorting and distorting' various stocks. Culper is not a credible research institution... His claims are baseless."
That's not good enough. Investors aren't looking for character attacks -- they're looking for specifics. A transparent response about development challenges and certification progress would go much further in restoring confidence.
That said, Culper's leap from timeline slippage to deliberate fraud feels like a stretch. There's a meaningful difference between aggressive projections and systemic deceit. Most of what Culper surfaces reads like standard aerospace growing pains -- ambitious messaging on the front end; reality catching up on the back end.
The UAE launch is essentially immaterial
Much of the current controversy revolves around whether Archer Aviation can launch commercial operations in the UAE by late 2025. But here's a crucial point: The UAE launch is essentially irrelevant to the long-term thesis.
The core opportunity is FAA certification for operations in the U.S. -- where the real demand, revenue potential, and infrastructure scale exist. A pilot program in Abu Dhabi may help build brand equity or validate operational procedures, but it won't meaningfully change Archer Aviation's long-term value.
In fact, it's increasingly clear that the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics are shaping up to be the real commercial debut. If Archer Aviation can operate aircraft safely and reliably during the Games, that could serve as a massive proof of concept for urban air mobility.
Premier partners don't waste time on questionable technology
This is where Culper's short thesis starts to crack. If Archer Aviation's technology were truly broken or years behind, why are serious industry players lining up to back it?
Palmer Luckey's Anduril Industries just signed an exclusive agreement with Archer Aviation to co-develop hybrid vertical aircraft for the Department of Defense. Luckey isn't known for backing unproven concepts. His defense start-up beat out Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman in the Air Force's autonomous systems program.
Then there's Palantir Technologies, which signed on to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) into Archer Aviation's flight systems and manufacturing stack. CEO Alex Karp personally announced the partnership at Palantir's AIPCon event.
United Airlines and Stellantis also re-upped their investments in Archer Aviation earlier this year, as part of a $430 million funding round. United brings operational expertise. Stellantis brings scale manufacturing and capital discipline.
These companies don't enter long-term agreements lightly. If Archer Aviation's aircraft were fundamentally unworkable, these partnerships wouldn't exist.
Defense vs. commercial development timelines
One point the short report largely ignores: Defense applications follow different timelines and certification pathways than commercial passenger transport.
Archer Aviation already has a $142 million contract from the U.S. Air Force and is delivering aircraft for evaluation. These defense-grade aircraft don't need FAA certification for combat or logistics roles. That means Archer Aviation could begin generating real revenue from defense use cases while commercial approval is still pending.
The Anduril partnership enhances this pathway. Military applications of electric vertical takeoff and landing technology could materialize faster than passenger mobility, giving Archer Aviation a second viable market.
A long-term investment remains long-term
Let me be clear: Archer Aviation has always been a high-risk, long-duration investment. The recent share price surge doesn't change the fundamental truth that aviation is hard, slow, and unforgiving.
Designing a new type of aircraft is hard. Certifying it is harder. Building out infrastructure and proving commercial viability? That's the ultimate challenge.
But that's also why the opportunity exists. If Archer Aviation succeeds, it won't just sell a few aircraft -- it will redefine how people move across congested urban corridors. The market potential remains enormous.
Culper's report is a useful reminder to stay grounded in execution realities. But it doesn't invalidate the broader thesis. Archer Aviation remains one of the best-positioned players in a field that could reshape the future of mobility.
The investment thesis remains intact
Yes, Archer Aviation faces real challenges. And yes, investors deserve a more substantive response to Culper's allegations.
But the long-term reasons to own this stock are unchanged. Strategic partnerships with heavy hitters Anduril, Palantir, United Airlines, and Stellantis point to real traction. Defense contracts offer an alternative path to revenue while the FAA certification process plays out. And the 2028 Olympics are a credible commercial milestone.
I didn't invest in Archer Aviation because I thought they'd hit every target on time. I invested because the upside of electric vertical flight is massive -- and because Archer Aviation is building serious partnerships to make it happen.
That's why I'm holding my shares.
