Upstart Holdings (UPST -0.49%) developed an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm to originate loans on behalf of banks and financial institutions, and it appears to be far more effective at determining the creditworthiness of potential borrowers than traditional assessment methods.
Upstart stock has nearly doubled over the past year, but it remains 88% below its all-time high, which was set during the tech frenzy in 2021. Demand for loans plummeted when interest rates soared in 2022 and 2023, which dealt a blow to the company's financial performance.
But earlier this month, Upstart reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025 (ended March 31), and they revealed extremely strong -- and accelerating -- revenue growth. Its stock is starting to look like a bargain, so here's why investors might wish they had bought the dip when they look back on this moment in the future.
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Faster loan approvals, higher accuracy, and a $1 trillion opportunity
Fair Isaac's FICO credit scoring system has been central to the banking industry's assessment methods for over three decades. It uses five key metrics to determine a potential borrower's creditworthiness, including their existing debts and their repayment history, but Upstart thinks it's outdated.
AI makes it possible to analyze high volumes of data in a matter of seconds, enabling Upstart's algorithm to consider over 2,500 metrics on every applicant. As a result, the company says it produces a more accurate overview of a borrower's ability to repay their loan. It approves double the number of applications than traditional assessment methods, and at a much lower average interest rate, while maintaining the same risk profile.
Inside a traditional bank, it would take a human assessor days, if not weeks, to manually analyze as much data as Upstart's AI algorithm. The company is slowly phasing humans out of the process entirely -- during the first quarter of 2025, it originated 240,706 loans in total, and a staggering 92% of those approvals were fully automated thanks to AI.
The bulk of Upstart's originations are unsecured personal loans, but it has a growing presence in automotive loans and also in the home equity line of credit (HELOC) segment. At the company's "AI Day 2025" earlier this month, CEO Dave Girouard hinted at a potential expansion into small business loans, industrial loans, and credit cards over the long term.
Girouard said there are around $25 trillion worth of originations worldwide each year across all loan segments, which translates into a $1 trillion opportunity in terms of fee revenue. He believes all human assessment methods will be replaced by AI within the next decade, and since Upstart is leading the transformation, it could capture a sizable chunk of that value.
Upstart's revenue growth is rapidly accelerating
Upstart generated $213 million in total revenue during the first quarter of 2025. It was a 67% increase from the same quarter in 2024, marking the fastest growth rate in around three years. It was also the third consecutive quarter in which that growth rate accelerated, highlighting the significant momentum in loan demand.
As I mentioned earlier, Upstart originated 240,706 loans during the quarter. They had a face value of $2.1 billion, which was a whopping 89% jump compared to the value of the loans the company originated in the same quarter last year. That growth rate also accelerated for the third straight quarter.
Upstart also made significant progress at the bottom line because its operating expenses only increased by 11.6%, which was a much slower pace than the increase in its revenue. The company still lost $2.4 million on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, but that was a 96.2% reduction from the $64.6 million net loss it delivered in the year-ago quarter.
Upstart's preferred measure of profitability is adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which is a non-GAAP metric. It excludes one-off and non-cash expenses like stock-based compensation, so it's a good indicator of the actual cash the business is generating. It was positive to the tune of $42.5 million during the quarter, which was a big swing from the loss of $20.3 million from the year-ago period.
Why Upstart stock is a buy now
When Upstart stock peaked in 2021, its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio surged to around 50, which was a completely unsustainable valuation. But the 88% decline in the stock since then, combined with the company's rapid revenue growth, has pushed its P/S ratio down to 5.7.
That's a 35% discount to its long-term average of 8.8 dating back to when Upstart went public in 2020. Plus, management's guidance suggests the company will deliver a record $1.01 billion in revenue during the 2025 full year, which places the stock at a forward P/S ratio of 4.2:
UPST PS Ratio data by YCharts
In other words, Upstart stock would have to double by the end of this year just to trade in line with its long-term average P/S ratio of 8.8. Considering the company's accelerating revenue growth, I think that's a real possibility.
The decline in interest rates at the end of 2024 was a big tailwind for Upstart's business in the first quarter of 2025. Wall Street is anticipating two more cuts from the Federal Reserve this year (according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool), which should drive even more demand for loans. But the opposite is also true -- if the Fed cuts rates slower than expected, Upstart's recent momentum could temporarily hit a wall.
But investors should stay focused on the long-term opportunity at hand, because if the number of loans assessed by AI continues to grow as CEO Dave Girouard expects, then Upstart stock could be poised for substantial upside over the next decade.
