Ripple's XRP (XRP -2.43%) has had a momentous six months, soaring almost 350% since November. What's more, Standard Chartered thinks it can go even higher. Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick predicts that Ripple will reach $12.50 by the end of 2028 -- that's about a 450% upside from today's price.
In the near term, Kendrick thinks XRP can reach $5.50 (more than double the current price of about $2.19) before the end of this year. He cites three major catalysts for growth:
- The potential approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF)
- XRP Ledger growth and increased stablecoin transactions
- Ripple's settlement agreement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
Read on to learn more about why so many investors are bullish on XRP -- as well as a note of caution.
Here's why XRP could soar
One of the biggest reasons to be optimistic about XRP is that it's already operational, with uses in financial transactions and money transfers, especially internationally. Cryptocurrency investors can quickly become accustomed to high levels of uncertainty, as many projects don't have a lot of real-world utility. Even Bitcoin, the grandaddy of crypto, has several potential use cases, but it isn't yet clear how it might come into its own.
That makes Ripple Labs and XRP a rare patch of (relatively) solid ground. Ripple already has partnerships with a number of banks and institutions, though not all of them use XRP. It says there are more than 1,500 projects, including stablecoins, on its XRP Ledger, a business-focused blockchain. As Kendrick points out, that could be a key driver for growth, especially as stablecoin transaction volumes increase.
The U.S. is closer than it's ever been to passing clear legislation that would give a regulatory framework for the burgeoning stablecoin industry. Citigroup's recently published Digital Dollars report projected that the stablecoin market could grow from $230 billion to between $500 billion and $3.7 trillion by 2030.
Not only does Ripple offer a low-cost and easy way to move money, particularly abroad, but it also helps companies and financial institutions that want to integrate blockchain technology into their businesses. That might be through tokenized assets, custodial solutions, or payment support. For example, this month, the Dubai Land Department launched a tokenized real estate project on an ​​XRP Ledger-based platform called Prypco Mint.
Ripple Labs is well placed to capitalize on the wider development of blockchain applications. The global blockchain market is predicted to expand to more than $300 billion by 2030, according to ResearchAndMarkets.com. That said, profits for Ripple's private shareholders won't necessarily equate to gains for XRP holders. The two are separate, and the company could grow without necessarily increasing the value of the token.
The icing on the cake would be SEC approval of a spot XRP ETF. The Standard Chartered note suggested it could lead to $4 billion to $8 billion in inflows in the first year. However, while the current crypto-friendly SEC may well approve the ETF, it hasn't happened yet. In fact, the SEC just kicked the can further down the road, saying it needed more time to consider the proposed WisdomTree XRP Fund.
Don't believe the hype
Image source: Getty Images.
I think the Ripple project has potential, but I am not convinced XRP's current market cap of almost $130 billion is warranted. That's not quite double the $70 billion market cap of PayPal, a major processor of payments and financial transactions. Visa, an even bigger payments processors, has a market cap of $688 billion.
For context, the secondary private market platform Hiive puts a $15 billion valuation on Ripple Labs. Even with the caveat that it's extremely difficult to put a price on companies before their initial public offerings (IPO), that's a big disconnect. Especially since Ripple Labs owns over 40% of the total XRP.
It's true that Ripple has a lot of established projects, and there's serious growth potential. However, there's also a tendency for the speculation to overtake reality.
To give you two examples:
- The SEC and Ripple have said their legal battle is over. But the judge denied their joint settlement motion to reduce Ripple's fine and lift the injunction on institutional sales.
- We recently saw a flurry of news headlines that Ripple might acquire Circle, the company behind the stablecoin USDC. This week, Circle denied them and announced an IPO.
A lot of the good news is already priced in
Standard Chartered projects XRP can grow considerably in just a few years, even overtaking Ethereum. Ripple and XRP are certainly a solid blockchain play, with tried and tested real-world use cases. But given that a lot of the good news is already priced in, that looks optimistic.
If you're looking to invest in the payment industry, consider companies like PayPal, Visa, or Mastercard. And if you want to put a small amount of crypto in your portfolio to hold for the long term, take a closer look at Bitcoin.
