Archer Aviation (ACHR -3.62%) is a stock that only more aggressive investors will want to look at. That's because it is a start-up that doesn't generate any revenue or profits. And yet the opportunity ahead of this aviation business could be hugely exciting, with 2025 likely to be the year that Archer Aviation, literally, takes off.
Here's what you need to know -- and why $13.30 is an important number to think about.
What does Archer Aviation do?
Archer Aviation has created an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft that it calls Midnight. It is a small, vertical lift plane meant to travel short distances. Effectively, the goal was to create what amounts to an air taxi, and Archer Aviation has achieved that goal. Only that's not the final hurdle, it was just the starting point.
Image source: Getty Images.
The airline industry is highly regulated, given that plane crashes are high profile and usually deadly. Getting clearance from the FAA for a new plane is a multistep process that can take years. This is why Archer Aviation creating one functional eVTOL isn't enough. The goal is to produce up to 10 Midnight eVTOLs in 2025, with most of them set to be used for the approval process.
At the end of the first quarter of 2025, the company estimated that it was only 15% of the way through the FAA approval process. In other words, there's a long way to go before Archer Aviation's Midnight eVTOL is approved to fly in the United States. But that doesn't mean it can't fly elsewhere. And that is the big news that investors will want to watch in 2025.
Monitor the progress in Abu Dhabi
The most important goal for Archer Aviation in 2025 is likely to be carrying the first commercial customers on its Midnight eVTOL in Abu Dhabi. That is where it is currently working with a partner to set up an air taxi service. There are a number of steps to achieve before that happens, including building and delivering a Midnight eVTOL to the country. But this will be the first true test of Archer Aviation's business idea.
Given that Archer Aviation is, effectively, a story stock, the successful launch of an air taxi service will likely lead to a higher stock price. The 52-week high was $13.30 per share, and that could easily be eclipsed when Midnight eVTOLs start getting used to carry commercial customers. There's more than one reason for that.
Archer Aviation's goal is to both sell aircraft and run its own air taxi service. It has already set the foundation for running air taxis in the United States. It has FAA approval to operate as an airline and FAA approval to train pilots on how to use its aircraft. The company also has plans for air taxis in California and New York lined up so it can hit the ground running once it gets the FAA nod for domestic use of the Midnight eVTOL.
A successful outcome in Abu Dhabi would basically help to assure investors that Archer Aviation's longer-term plans are feasible. And it would provide a blueprint for the company to follow for its own ramp-up, smoothing the process of starting domestic air taxi services. That doesn't even consider the customer side, with every safe flight in Abu Dhabi likely increasing the chances that U.S. customers will feel comfortable taking a ride in a new type of aircraft.
Should you buy Archer Aviation?
The first question to ask here is whether a high-risk investment like Archer Aviation is right for your portfolio. No revenue, no earnings, and a still-untested product suggest that most will probably want to sit on the sidelines until a few more key milestones have been reached.
But more aggressive investors who buy now could be getting in before what is likely to be a very important turning point for Archer Aviation. It wouldn't be surprising to see the stock jump above its 52-week high of $13.30 per share on news of the first commercial flight in Abu Dhabi, which would be the first sign that the puzzle pieces are starting to come together.
