While investors chase quantum moonshots like Rigetti Computing -- up over 1,100% over the prior 12 months -- and IonQ -- up nearly 500% over the same period -- Amazon (AMZN -1.38%) is quietly building the infrastructure to profit no matter who wins the quantum computing race.
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The e-commerce giant's Amazon Web Services (AWS) Braket platform already hosts quantum computing services from multiple providers, making it the Switzerland of the quantum wars. But Amazon isn't just playing host; it's also developing its quantum hardware, creating two distinct paths to profit from what could become a trillion-dollar market. This dual approach makes Amazon the most overlooked opportunity in the market for quantum computing.
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AI is accelerating quantum timelines
Conventional wisdom says practical quantum computing remains decades away. Most experts point to persistent challenges with error rates, qubit stability, and the need for near-absolute-zero operating temperatures. They're probably wrong.
What skeptics often overlook is the recursive learning potential of artificial intelligence (AI). When AI systems can design better AI systems, progress compounds exponentially. DeepMind's AlphaFold solved protein folding -- a 50-year challenge -- in months. The same recursive improvement cycle is about to hit quantum computing.
IBM plans to deliver its fault-tolerant quantum computer, Starling, by 2029 -- years ahead of previous predictions. The company says its breakthrough error-correction techniques will enable a system 20,000 times more powerful than today's quantum computers. This accelerated timeline reflects how AI is helping solve quantum's biggest challenges faster than expected.
AWS Braket: The quantum cloud marketplace
While pure-play quantum companies race to build better hardware, Amazon has taken a different approach. AWS Braket, launched in 2019, enables developers to access quantum computers from D-Wave, IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and others through the cloud. Think of it as the App Store for quantum computing -- Amazon profits regardless of which hardware ultimately wins.
This isn't Amazon's first platform rodeo. AWS generated $107.6 billion in revenue in 2024, crossing the $100 billion mark for the first time. Braket follows the same playbook, charging for access time while avoiding the massive research and development (R&D) costs of developing quantum hardware alone.
Amazon's in-house hardware gives it a dual advantage
Amazon isn't content to be just a middleman. The company's Center for Quantum Computing at Caltech is developing its own quantum processors, giving it a hedge in case proprietary hardware becomes the key differentiator. It's the best of both worlds: platform fees today, breakthrough potential tomorrow.
Yes, quantum stocks have exploded. Companies like Rigetti Computing and IonQ sport billion-dollar valuations despite minimal revenue. Quantum Computing has surged by over 3,000% in the past year. But Amazon offers something these pure plays can't: a profitable business generating nearly $700 billion in annual revenue.
The numbers tell the story. Over $1.25 billion poured into quantum start-ups in Q1 2025 alone -- double the amount from the previous year. Moreover, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reversed course, calling quantum computing "imminent" rather than decades away. This admission added significant fuel to the quantum rally earlier this year.
Real customers, real revenue, no hype required
Unlike pure-play quantum companies burning cash on R&D, Amazon's Braket already serves paying customers. Volkswagen uses it for traffic optimization research. Goldman Sachs explores quantum Monte Carlo simulations for derivatives pricing. Roche investigates drug discovery applications.
These aren't science projects. Fortune 500 companies are spending real money to explore quantum's potential. As algorithms improve and hardware matures, experimental budgets will transform into production workloads -- all running on AWS.
The beauty of Amazon's model is its optionality. If quantum computing takes another decade to mature, AWS will keep printing money from traditional cloud services. If breakthroughs accelerate, Amazon will capture the infrastructure spending boom. Heads you win, tails you don't lose.
The valuation case
At just 24 times 2027 projected earnings, the market isn't pricing in quantum's massive potential upside for this tech stock. If quantum becomes a $100 billion market by 2035 and AWS captures even 30%, that's $30 billion in high-margin revenue -- comparable to AWS's entire business five years ago. With AWS operating margins above 35%, quantum could add meaningful earnings power. Yet, this optionality is barely reflected in the stock's current valuation.
Investors looking for quantum upside without the moonshot risk don't need to chase cash-flow-negative companies. Amazon offers something far more powerful -- a platform that profits from the entire ecosystem, combined with a mountain of revenue. In the next wave of disruption, the real winner may not be the one building the quantum computer, but the one powering them all.
