Cryptocurrencies are often unpredictable. XRP (XRP -1.98%) is a prime example of this quality. An ominous lawsuit started weighing on the cryptocurrency in December 2020. The suit started to wind down in the first half of 2024, and the Ripple Labs organization launched an XRP-based stablecoin. You'd think the cryptocurrency would soar on the news, but it took a steep dive instead.
Then the 2024 elections came along. A more crypto-friendly White House signaled the end of XRP's legal issues, and the cryptocurrency suddenly made up for lost time. Here in early July, 2025, XRP's 5-year returns finally match the Bitcoin (BTC -1.84%) standard:
But that's ancient history already. You always have to look forward in the fast-moving cryptocurrency market. Where will XRP go in the next five years -- and is it a good buy right now?
Let's have a look.
Ripple and SEC are settling their differences
The big catalyst every XRP owner was waiting for? Well, that one is playing out right now. Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have agreed to a settlement and withdrawn their appeals, effectively ending the four-year courtroom drama. There are a few more Ts to cross and Is to dot, as Judge Analisa Torres rejected the first settlement draft. The filing, which would end the case and impose a $50 million fine on Ripple Labs, was "procedurally improper."
So the lawyers are going back to the drawing board to hammer out a technically complete filing. But it seems like a foregone conclusion that the lawsuit is ending with much lower monetary damages and fewer operating restrictions than the SEC had requested earlier. And this outcome appears to be priced into XRP's chart, with the big jump falling shortly after November's election process.
Image source: Getty Images.
If XRP were a stock...
XRP is one of the largest cryptocurrencies at this point, sporting a total market value of $133 billion on July 2. If XRP were a stock, representing the value of the related RippleNet international payments platform, it would be one of the 5 most valuable credit services on Wall Street. The hypothetical XRP market cap would still be far behind sector leaders Visa (V -0.16%) and Mastercard (MA 0.25%), whose market caps stand at $685 billion and $509 billion, respectively.
But XRP would be a significant force in the credit services industry -- and I don't think that's entirely fair in 2025.
Ripple vs. Visa: Spoiler, it's not a fair fight (yet)
There are fewer than 23,000 active accounts in the RippleNet transaction ledger. The platform processes about one million payments per day. The Ripple systems have moved "over $1 trillion" between different counterparties, but that's not on a daily or even annual basis. That's the total value processed since the first Ripple transaction was made in 2012.
By contrast, Visa's total payment volume was $3.9 trillion in the most recently reported quarter. Visa's transaction volume was 818 million payments per day. Mastercard's business metrics are about half of Visa's, but still many times richer than Ripple's relatively tiny operations.
I'm holding, not hoarding, my XRP coins in 2025
Yes, I believe that RippleNet and XRP will earn their stripes over time. However, the cryptocurrency shouldn't be worth about a quarter of Mastercard's market cap, based on vanishingly small transaction volumes and revenue streams. This bullish drama could very well play out over the next five years, finally making a serious Visa rival out of XRP.
It's just too early to give XRP that big of a market cap. I'm happy to hold my own XRP coins for the long haul, but this isn't the best time to back up the digital truck and load up on this cryptocurrency. The SEC lawsuit's closure has already been priced into XRP, and I think the big November jump was an overreaction.
You might still want to pick up a couple of XRP coins just to get exposure to this cryptocurrency with real-world business prospects. Just keep those purchases slow and small these days. A lower price or a sudden explosion in RippleNet transactions could signal a real buying opportunity over the next few years.
