The cryptocurrency market has been rather choppy in the past year, with the collective market value of all cryptocurrencies falling about 9%, primarily due to economic uncertainty (which pushed investors away from risky assets) and the unwinding of positions built on borrowed money.
XRP (XRP 1.40%) has underperformed the market, its price dropping 22% to $2.08 over the past year. But Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, expects a rebound. He thinks regulatory clarity and the adoption of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will drive XRP to $12.50 by 2028, which implies 500% upside.
Here's what investors should know.
Image source: Getty Images.
The XRP blockchain is a faster and cheaper alternative to traditional cross-border payment solutions
XRP is the native cryptocurrency on the XRP Ledger, a blockchain designed to support fast and inexpensive cross-border transactions. Fintech company Ripple uses that blockchain to provide real-time payment solutions to financial institutions such as banks, payment service providers, and crypto businesses.
Today, cross-border payments generally move through the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system, but Ripple says those transactions often take three to five days to settle and usually incur high fees because they are routed through a complex network of intermediaries. XRP removes those inefficiencies with near-instant settlement and negligible fees.
The SWIFT messaging system facilitates north of $150 trillion in annual transactions, but Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says XRP could handle 14% of that volume within a few years, implying the blockchain could move over $20 trillion annually. The subsequent demand for XRP would boost its price significantly, but I find that prediction implausible.
It simply does not make sense to transfer money with a volatile cryptocurrency (even if the transactions are settled quickly) when stablecoins exist. Ripple addressed that issue by adding the stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD) to its payments ecosystem in December 2024, but its impact has been inconsequential. In fact, XRP transaction volume actually trended downward during the past year.
Nevertheless, Geoffrey Kendrick at Standard Chartered sees greater adoption in the future as a likely catalyst. "XRP is uniquely positioned at the heart of one of the fastest-growing use cases for digital assets -- facilitation of cross-border and cross-currency payments," he wrote in a note to clients.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
Spot XRP ETFs could unlock pent-up demand among retail and institutional investors
Retail investors and institutional investors have become increasingly comfortable with digital assets, especially popular ones like XRP. But cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase are still a big source of friction, not only because they charge high transaction fees but also because investors, in many cases, must maintain separate accounts for cryptocurrencies and stocks.
In November, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began approving spot XRP ETFs. Currently, six funds trade on U.S. exchanges, providing investors with relatively cheap XRP exposure through traditional brokerage accounts. The Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) is especially attractive. Its expense ratio of 0.19% is well below what Coinbase or Robinhood would charge on cryptocurrency transactions below $50,000.
Importantly, spot XRP ETFs could unlock demand among institutional investors, a group that had $147 trillion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 2025. A small fraction of that sum invested in spot XRP ETFs could push XRP's price much higher. Geoffrey Kendrick believes spot XRP ETF inflows could total $4 billion to $8 billion during the first year.
Here is my opinion: I think Kendrick's XRP target of $12.50 by 2028 is much too high. I doubt XRP will ever be a major facilitator of cross-border payments because it makes more sense to use stablecoins. And I doubt Ripple USD will ever become a major stablecoin because it will be difficult to disrupt established options such as USDC from Circle Internet Group.
That leaves spot XRP ETFs as the only real catalyst for price appreciation. And while those funds could be a material source of demand, I believe institutional investors will prioritize Bitcoin. Indeed, spot XRP ETFs drew $1.4 billion in net inflows during their first two months on the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hit that milestone in less than a month.
