Quantum computing is an exciting investment field that could heat up during the second half of 2025. More and more systems are being sold for research purposes, and Rigetti Computing's (RGTI 6.54%) systems are among the best.
Rigetti is still down around 35% from its high at the start of the year but has rallied significantly in recent weeks. Could Rigetti Computing return to its all-time high by the time 2025 is over? Let's take a look.
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Quantum computing will be a huge market after 2030
Rigetti Computing is a pure-play quantum computing investment. It's not like some of the other big tech companies that are using their cash flows to fund quantum computing research. Instead, Rigetti relies on contracts and one-off system sales to continue operations. If it falls behind in the quantum computing race or is unable to raise additional funds, the stock will be worthless. This highlights a key risk in investing in Rigetti Computing, but there is also immense upside.
Should Rigetti Computing win the quantum computing race, it could benefit from a massive market opportunity that's expected to arise over the next decade. Before 2030, management estimates that the total market opportunity for quantum computing is approximately $1 billion to $2 billion, primarily focused on government research labs. However, management believes that there is a $15 billion to $30 billion annual market opportunity that will arise between 2030 and 2040. Should Rigetti Computing become the go-to option, it will be a massive win for investors.
NASDAQ: RGTI
Key Data Points
Rigetti is also taking the correct approach to building a winning quantum computing solution. Rigetti Computing offers a full-stack solution that provides the hardware and software necessary to run and produce results with its quantum computing ecosystem. This is similar to the approach that Nvidia (NVDA 4.17%) has taken with its graphics processing units (GPUs), which have allowed it to dominate the AI race.
With Rigetti following in smart footsteps, it's no surprise that it has emerged as one of the top choices in quantum computing. But is that enough to propel Rigetti back to all-time highs in the back half of the year?
Rigetti Computing is still a bit behind some of its peers
As Rigetti openly admits, there isn't a huge market for quantum computers right now. As a result, any move in the stock price is due to speculation or news releases about the sale of a unit.
In the first quarter of 2025, Rigetti Computing's sales were a measly $1.5 million. That's because there weren't many system sales. However, if Rigetti reports a quarter in which it's sold several of its Novera QPUs (quantum processing units), then the stock will likely rise on the good news.
However, this is far from certain, and it all depends on whether customers can get proper funding (from the government) to research this emerging technology. As a result, I think investors are better off keeping their distance from Rigetti stock, as there are other, more promising quantum computing plays that are generating far more revenue or have alternative business models if their quantum computing investments don't work out.
Rigetti Computing could still be a huge winner in the quantum computing race, but it looks to be a laggard in the field right now.
