Bitcoin (BTC 0.05%) has had a successful run during 2025. It reached an all-time high of almost $118,900 in July 10 and is up 25% on the year. The S&P 500, often used as a measure of how the stock market is doing, has managed a 6% year-to-date return.
Investors are happy with the results but also wondering if a decline could be on the way. Bitcoin's previous bull runs have been followed by downturns where it lost a significant portion of its value. But Standard Chartered, a U.K. bank, is predicting that the leading cryptocurrency will go even higher during the next two quarters.
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A new price dynamic
In the past, Bitcoin has followed a price dynamic related to its halving cycle. A Bitcoin halving is when the block reward for Bitcoin mining is cut in half. While the miners who validate transactions earn half as much as before, halving tends to increase the demand for Bitcoin and drive up the price.
Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to occur every time 210,000 blocks are mined, which happens roughly every four years. There have been four Bitcoin halvings, in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024, and Bitcoin's price has risen after each one. After the first three halvings, prices peaked after about 18 months, and then declined.
The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and following that 18-month estimate, the price should peak in about September. However, Standard Chartered believes that increased investments in Bitcoin will help it move past that dynamic, and the bank has a very bullish outlook on where the price will go. It's predicting Bitcoin will reach $135,000 by the end of the third quarter (a 13% increase from the price as of July 10) and $200,000 by year's end (a 68% increase).
Based on Bitcoin's returns so far this year, those price targets seem quite optimistic. There are a few reasons Standard Chartered expects this kind of growth during the next six months.
Bullish indicators for Bitcoin
Inflows from institutional and corporate investors will be the dominant driver of Bitcoin's growth, according to Standard Chartered. It reported that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Bitcoin treasury companies bought 245,000 bitcoins in the second quarter. It was the second-best quarter on record behind only the fourth quarter of 2024.
It's reasonable to expect that Bitcoin will continue to benefit from institutional interest. Bitcoin ETFs have become a popular way to invest in the leading cryptocurrency. The Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Between then and now, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $48.9 billion in net inflows.
Standard Chartered also mentioned the Genius Act as a potential tailwind for Bitcoin. Since the Genius Act regulates stablecoins, it doesn't directly affect Bitcoin. But it could attract new crypto investors who were previously on the fence due to a lack of regulations, and new investors often start with Bitcoin.
The U.S. Senate passed the Genius Act on June 17, and a House vote could happen as early as this week. Any positive news on that front will likely be a tailwind for Bitcoin.
The crypto market is anything but predictable
Even with high Bitcoin inflows and the Genius Act, Standard Chartered's price predictions may be out of reach. In particular, $200,000 by the end of the year is a sizable leap. The bank has also overshot the mark before, as it predicted Bitcoin would hit $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025.
However, with the volatility in the crypto market, it's practically impossible to make accurate price predictions. Bitcoin could certainly increase by another 68% over the rest of the year, or it could lose half its value.
The real question isn't where Bitcoin's price will be in a few months, but whether it's a sound long-term investment. It's hard to argue with the results up until now, as Bitcoin has delivered fantastic returns. It's up 1,200% during the past five years. There's also a limited maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoin, giving it a built-in scarcity that helps amid rising demand.
On the other hand, Bitcoin doesn't have much real-world utility. Unlike a business, it doesn't produce anything of value. And while Bitcoin works as a payment method, transactions are slower and more expensive than other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin transactions generally take about 10 minutes to process and cost about $1.
Bitcoin seems to have caught on as a digital store of value, though, and as a hedge against inflation. Given how successful it has been and the growing interest in cryptocurrency investing, Bitcoin is a reasonable investment, as long as you don't put too much money in it. A good starting point is 1% of your portfolio, and then you can increase your allocation from there if you feel comfortable.
