President Donald Trump wants to quadruple nuclear power output in the U.S. by 2050, from 100 gigawatts to 400 GW -- and NuScale Power (SMR 12.81%) wants to help.
Taking as its ticker the abbreviation for small modular (nuclear) reactors -- or SMRs -- NuScale has built a business now possessing not the only one, but the only two small modular reactor designs certified for use by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. It hasn't actually built any SMRs yet, of course. Indeed, NuScale's business model doesn't actually envision ever building reactors.
Rather, the company plans rather to license its designs and technology to other companies that will build and operate them. And the company plans to get started with all this in about five years. So let's see where the business could be by then.
Image source: Getty Images.
NuScale has a plan
NuScale originally intended to have its first "module" operational at the Idaho National Laboratory by 2029. Its original timeline has since shifted to 2030, but at least the company says it is "on track" to hit this new objective.
In a May 2025 investor presentation, NuScale described its modular system as a 15' by 76' reactor design encapsulating a reactor core fueled by conventional low-enriched uranium (LEU), a pressure vessel containing light water, steam generators, a pressurizer, and containment system. Each module will generate 77 megawatts of electrical output, and modules can be grouped in sets of up to 12 reactors to create a linked system generating just under 1 gigawatt of power.
Manufacturers such as NuScale's Korea partner Doosan Enerbility can build its reactors at one site, then ship them to power plants where they will operate, similar to how manufactured housing units are built in a factory and then shipped to their destination rather than being built on-site.
The company begins booking revenue from partners wishing to operate its reactors approximately five years before COD (commercial operation date), and begins module production three years before COD. In line with this plan, NuScale says Doosan is already in the process of building 12 modules for future customers.
NuScale by the numbers
So NuScale has a plan to begin commercial operations. And yet NuScale is curiously quiet in its investor presentation on what kinds of numbers it expects to produce once it reaches COD, discussing neither profit nor revenue projections.
In its presentation, the company describes how it's already collecting licensing revenue from its technology -- about $49 million over the last 12 months. It admits to losing money this entire time, too, with operating costs exceeding revenue of $168.5 million, far exceeding the revenue it's bringing in, and net losses exceeding $134 million.
NuScale isn't particularly clear, however, about how these numbers will evolve over time. Analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence have made some guesses, however.
Taking NuScale at its word on the subject of commercial operations beginning in 2030, analysts have penciled in that date as the first year NuScale will earn a profit (of $54 million, or $0.26 per share). Free cash flow in 2030 should be similar, about $60 million, and analysts expect to see free cash flow increase dramatically from there.
Is NuScale stock a buy?
The first question investors should ask before investing in NuScale is this: NuScale's not going to earn anything until 2030. So what are the chances that NuScale can remain in business until 2030?
The news here is good. NuScale has $521.4 million cash in the bank, and no long-term debt to speak of today. The company is burning cash, but just under $100 million annually, and analysts expect cash burn to slow as revenue ramps up. With NuScale outsourcing construction of its reactor modules, there's really no reason to doubt this. Moreover, even if cash burn continues at its present rate, NuScale has sufficient cash reserves to carry it thorough 2030 without the need to issue more shares or take on debt.
I still personally wouldn't bet too much on the company. Even assuming analysts are right in their projections, $54 million five years from now is not a lot of profit to justify buying a stock that costs more than $10 billion (in implied market capitalization) today. It works out to a very, very forward P/E ratio of 185. Five years is also a long time to wait to see if the analysts are right about NuScale being able to earn a profit from this business.
That said, if you're dead set on investing in a nuclear stock, trust NuScale's timeline, agree 2030 is a reasonable target date for getting a first reactor operating -- and are willing to wait five years for profitability to emerge -- NuScale could be worth a small, speculative investment. Just remember to bet small, and limit your risk.
