When Nvidia (NVDA 4.08%) released its fiscal 2026 first-quarter results (for the three months ended April 27) a couple of months ago, the company had bad news in store for investors as it was losing business in a key market thanks to export restrictions.
Specifically, Nvidia pointed out in its previous earnings report that it bore a multibillion-dollar charge because of its inability to ship its H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China. Its revenue during the quarter took a hit, while the guidance could have been much better if there were no restrictions on the sales of its chips to Chinese customers.
But now, it looks like Nvidia is set to resume its sales in China. Let's take a closer look at this latest development that could give its business a big boost.
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Jensen Huang says that Nvidia is set to start shipments of its H20 chips to China
Nvidia was informed by the U.S. government in April that it needs a license to export its China-specific H20 chip into that market. The company took a $4.5 billion charge on account of the excess inventory of the unsold H20 chips that it was left with. Nvidia also lost $2.5 billion in revenue because of this restriction during the quarter.
Even worse, the company said that it will lose $8 billion in H20 revenue in the ongoing quarter thanks to the restrictions. However, a blog published by Nvidia on July 14 states that CEO Jensen Huang met with President Donald Trump and other policymakers, giving an update that the company "is filing applications to sell the NVIDIA H20 GPU again." More importantly, the blog points out that the U.S. government assured Nvidia that licenses will be granted and the company hopes for deliveries to begin soon.
Nvidia shipped $4.6 billion worth of H20 processors to China in fiscal Q1 before the export restrictions kicked in. Including the lost sales during the quarter, Nvidia's Chinese revenue would have been just over $7 billion. And when we consider the $8 billion revenue that the company was expecting from this market in fiscal Q2, Nvidia's revenue from that market would have hit $15 billion in the first half of the current fiscal year.
The Chinese business, therefore, was on track to generate $30 billion in annual revenue for the company this year before it was hamstrung by the export controls. Analysts are expecting $200 billion in revenue from Nvidia in the current fiscal year. That figure could have been significantly higher if the company were allowed to uninterruptedly sell its H20 processors into the Chinese market.
However, Nvidia was caught in the crosshairs of the tariff-fueled trade war between the U.S. and China. The good part is that both countries show\ signs of easing restrictions on exports of key products, and it looks like Nvidia has benefited from the same. As such, it won't be surprising to see the chipmaker finish the current fiscal year in a stronger-than-expected position.
The return of the lost business could be a tailwind for the stock in the second half of 2025
We already saw how much revenue Nvidia could have minted from China in the current fiscal year. Now that the company is set to receive licenses to export its chips, there is a good chance that it could get back that lost revenue.
Nvidia is going to be in a position to fulfill the $8 billion worth of orders that it had lined up for fiscal Q2, along with the $2.5 billion worth of shipments that it was unable to fulfill in the previous quarter. This could help Nvidia generate more revenue than what Wall Street is anticipating in the current fiscal year.
Assuming that Nvidia manages to sustain the run rate of its H20 business in China in the second half of the fiscal year, it could generate $15 billion in revenue from that market. Analysts at equity research firm Bernstein estimate that Nvidia has the potential to generate incremental revenue of $15 billion to $20 billion in the current fiscal year once it gets the H20 export licenses.
What's more, the company could generate an additional $0.40 to $0.50 per share in earnings based on the incremental revenue estimate. In the end, it can be concluded that Nvidia could deliver stronger-than-expected growth in fiscal 2026, which it can sustain in the long run as well thanks to the opportunities it is witnessing in other countries.
Investors, therefore, have another reason to buy Nvidia stock right now as a potential acceleration in its revenue and earnings growth following this latest development could lead to more upside.
