QuantumScape (QS +2.42%), a developer of solid-state lithium metal batteries, is a difficult stock to value because it hasn't commercialized any of its products yet. It isn't generating any meaningful revenue, it's racking up steep losses, yet it still has a market cap of $6.1 billion.
QuantumScape might seem like a risky stock to hold in this volatile market, but it rallied about 25% over the past 12 months and is hovering near its 52-week high. Let's see why this speculative stock keeps rising -- and if it can climb even higher over the next 12 months.
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QuantumScape wants to reshape the EV battery industry
QuantumScape's solid-state batteries generate power with solid electrolytes instead of the liquid electrolytes used in lithium ion batteries. That difference gives them higher charging capacities, faster charging times, and better thermal resistance than their lithium ion counterparts. However, solid-state batteries are also more expensive and difficult to manufacture. That's why they've only been mass-produced for smaller devices like pacemakers and wearables instead of consumer electronics and electric vehicles (EVs).
QuantumScape wants to change that market perception with its QSE-5 battery for EVs, which have an energy density of more than 800 Wh/L (watt hours per liter) and can be rapidly charged from 10% to 80% in less than 15 minutes. The lithium-ion batteries used in most EVs have an average density of 300 to 700 Wh/L with an average fast-charging time of 20 minutes to an hour. It's been co-developing those batteries with Volkswagen over the past decade.
NASDAQ: QS
Key Data Points
Why did QuantumScape's stock rally over the past year?
When QuantumScape went public in late 2020, it claimed it could commercialize its first batteries by 2024. But after it missed that deadline, it pushed that date back to 2026.
That delay discouraged a lot of its early investors, and its stock plummeted from its all-time high of $131.67 on Dec. 22, 2020, to a record low of just $3.40 per share on April 8, 2025. Yet QuantumScape's stock has more than tripled since then for three simple reasons.
First, QuantumScape initiated the baseline production for its next-gen Cobra separator process, which marked a major upgrade from its current-gen Raptor process, in late June. That upgrade will significantly boost its cell reliability, equipment productivity, and total yields. It will use the Cobra process to produce the first high-volume samples of its QSE-5 batteries, and the first deliveries of those samples to automakers could set the foundations for the mass commercialization of its designs.
Second, QuantumScape abandoned its capital-intensive plan to manufacture its batteries at its own gigafactories. Instead, it pivoted toward a capital-light licensing model, in which it will license its technology to other automakers to collect higher-margin licensing fees, royalties, and milestone payments. Its first major customer will be Volkswagen's battery division, PowerCo. Lastly, QuantumScape reaffirmed its plan to start generating revenue through its first field tests next year. Analysts only expect it to generate $4.5 million in revenue with a staggering net loss of $430 million in 2026, but that would still mark a major turning point for its business.
Where will QuantumScape's stock be in a year?
In 2027, analysts expect its revenue to rise to $60.2 million as it narrows its net loss to $371 million. That growth should be driven by its deal with PowerCo and orders from other automakers. Its new manufacturing partnership with Murata, aimed at ramping up the production of the ceramic film used in its separators, should support that expansion.
However, QuantumScape's stock still looks expensive at more than 100 times its projected sales for 2027. Therefore, its upside potential over the next 12 months could be limited -- and it won't have much downside protection during a market downturn. That might be why its insiders were net sellers over the past three months.
QuantumScape could be a good speculative stock to own for the next decade if you expect it to successfully establish an early mover's advantage in the nascent solid-state battery market. But it might slide lower or trade sideways over the next 12 months, since it still mainly trades on the headlines and isn't generating any meaningful revenue yet.
