Biopharmaceuticals stock Gilead Sciences (GILD +0.79%) jumped 2.5% through 12:30 p.m. ET Friday after Needham & Co. upgraded the shares to a buy rating and slapped a $133 price target on the $116 stock.
Key to the analyst's analysis is Gilead's new Yeztugo prescription medication for pre-exposure prevention of HIV-1.
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What Needham says about Gilead
Citing a survey of physicians, Needham reports in a note covered on The Fly this morning that the market for "pre-exposure prophylaxis" against HIV is likely to increase 49% in size over the next five years. Within this market, physicians on average expect Yeztugo to grab a 38% market share.
But here's the thing: Most analyst forecasts do not factor into their Gilead valuations Yeztugo's share gains in the growing HIV prophylaxis market. And with Needham believing Yeztugo will become a "a multi-billion dollar contributor to sales growth over the next several years," the analyst feels investors should buy Gilead stock now, before more analysts catch on to the opportunity.
NASDAQ: GILD
Key Data Points
Is Gilead stock a sell?
Just how big of an opportunity is this? Well, consider Gilead as it stands today. Valued just over $141 billion, Gilead stock sells for just 23.5 times trailing earnings (i.e. without growth from Yeztugo).
Most analysts expect Gilead to grow profits nearly 23% annually over the next five years, and the company also pays a respectable 2.8% dividend yield. I'd argue that already makes Gilead stock a good stock prospect for growth at a reasonable price. But Gilead also generates substantially more free cash flow than it reports as net income -- about $9.8 billion over the last 12 months -- which drops its price-to-free-cash-flow ratio down well below 15.
Without Yeztugo, that's already a great price. With growth from Yeztugo, Gilead stock could be a steal.
