Shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR -2.46%) have advanced 110% year to date, while shares of Amazon (AMZN -8.09%) have increased just 7%. But most Wall Street analysts are bearish on the former and bullish on the latter:
- Among 29 analysts, Palantir has a median 12-month target price of $111 per share. That implies 30% downside from its current share price of $158.
- Among 71 analysts, Amazon has a median 12-month target price of $252 per share. That implies 15% upside from its current share price of $219.
Wall Street's forecasts suggest investors should sell Palantir and buy Amazon. Read on to see the pertinent facts about each company.
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Palantir Technologies
Palantir reported solid first-quarter financial results. Its customer count rose 39% to 769, and the average spend per existing customer climbed 24%, marking the sixth straight increase in net revenue retention. In turn, revenue rose 39% to $884 million, the seventh straight acceleration, and non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings jumped 62% to $0.13 per diluted share.
C-suite executive Ryan Taylor attributed the strong performance to "unrelenting demand for AIP," the artificial intelligence platform introduced in 2023. Management also raised full-year guidance on the assumption that momentum will continue, such that revenue is forecast to increase 36% in 2025. But investors have good reason to think the company will continue to grow at a rapid clip for many quarters thereafter.
International Data Corporation (IDC) recently ranked Palantir as the market leader in decision-intelligence platforms. And Forrester Research recognized the company as a leader in artificial intelligence and machine learning platforms. Those accolades hint at strong future sales growth. Grand View Research says analytics software sales will grow at 29% annually through 2030, and IDC says AI platform sales will increase at 41% annually through 2028.
However, while Palantir's business is obviously firing on all cylinders, the stock trades at an absurdly expensive valuation of 127 times sales. That makes Palantir the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.60%) by a long shot. The next closest company is Texas Land Pacific, at 31 times sales. That means Palantir would still be the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 even if its share price declined 75%.
Palantir has distinguished itself as a leader in data analytics and AI platforms, and both markets are forecast to grow quickly in the coming years. But the stock trades at such an expensive valuation that the risk-reward profile is heavily skewed to the downside. Prospective investors should wait for a better entry point, and shareholders with large positions should consider trimming.
Amazon
Amazon reported exceptional second-quarter financial results that crushed estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased 13% to $168 billion, an acceleration from the previous quarter, due to particularly strong growth in the advertising and cloud computing divisions. Operating margin expanded 150 basis points, and GAAP earnings increased 62% to $1.59 per diluted share.
The investment thesis for Amazon is straightforward. The company runs the largest online marketplace outside of China, it is the third-largest adtech company in the world, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the largest public cloud as measured by infrastructure and platform services revenue. All three markets are forecast to grow faster than 10% annually through 2030.
Accordingly, Wall Street estimates Amazon's earnings will increase at 18% annually over the next three years. That reasonable forecast makes the current valuation of 33 times earnings look fair. That is particularly true because Amazon topped the consensus earnings estimate by an average of 23% during the last four quarters, suggesting analysts may be underestimating future growth.
Amazon has a strong presence in three large and growing markets, as well as nascent opportunities in robotics and autonomous driving technology. And with the stock trading at a sensible valuation, long-term investors should feel comfortable buying a few shares today.
