The primary growth drivers of the U.S. economy have shifted in recent decades. Twenty years ago, the largest companies in the land hailed from the oil and industrial industries. For example, in 2005, the largest companies in the U.S., measured by market cap, were ExxonMobil and General Electric, worth $392 billion and $375 billion, respectively. Now, two decades later, technology enterprises, particularly those involved in artificial intelligence (AI), are at the top of the charts.
Three of the world's most recognizable companies are at the forefront. AI chipmaker Nvidia leads the field at $4.3 trillion, within striking distance of a new all-time high. Software and cloud purveyor Microsoft also appears poised to climb to new heights, recently climbing to $3.9 trillion. Rounding out this tech trifecta is iPhone maker Apple at $3.1 trillion.
With a market cap of $2.3 trillion, it might seem a bit premature to predict Amazon's (AMZN 1.66%) admission. After all, fair-weather investors have fled, and the stock is flat so far this year, weighed down by tariff-related uncertainty. However, other segments of Amazon's business appear poised to spark a renaissance in the company's growth, securing its membership in the $3 trillion club.
Image source: Getty Images.
The tariff conundrum
The Trump administration's tariff policies remain in flux, and the resulting uncertainty is weighing on Amazon's stock. That's easy to understand, as third-party merchants generate roughly 62% of unit sales, and many of these goods are sourced from China. A recent deal set a minimum levy of 30% on Chinese imports, while some products are saddled with a higher rate. The recent trade agreement notwithstanding, investors are wary of the ongoing impact on Amazon's e-commerce sales.
Results from the second quarter and Amazon's forecast seemed to confirm their worst fears. Overall net sales increased 13% year over year to $167.7 billion, with 61% of its revenue from digital sales or third-party seller services. The company's third-quarter outlook is telling. While Amazon is forecasting revenue growth of 11.5% at the midpoint of its guidance, it expects operating income to be essentially flat, in no small part thanks to tariffs.
Partly cloudy
The good news is that its cloud computing segment, Amazon Web Services (AWS), won't be directly affected by tariffs. For context, AWS generated 19% of Amazon's revenue and 58% of operating income so far this year, helping insulate the company somewhat from tariffs.
Furthermore, AWS is the worldwide leader in cloud infrastructure services, with a market share of 32% in Q1, according to market analyst Canalys. Furthermore, the segment is growing at a respectable pace, with sales of $31 billion representing a roughly 18% increase.
Growth has reaccelerated over the past year, driven by rising demand for AI. In June, CEO Andy Jassy pulled back the curtain, revealing that Amazon had more than 1,000 generative AI services and apps in development or already built, and the company plans to create many more. "AI will be a substantial catalyst," Jassy said.
Amazon's cloud customers represent a captive audience and target market for its AI products and services, which will be a catalyst for future growth.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
A distinct "ad"vantage
Another area fueling Amazon's growth is advertising, which is by far the company's fastest-growing segment. Ad revenue grew 23% year over year to $15.7 billion in Q2, and now accounts for more than 9% of total revenue. Its growth has expanded beyond in-search advertising, driven by Amazon Prime, live sports programming, Fire TV, and Twitch -- the company's live-streaming gaming platform.
Amazon also recently inked deals with Roku and Disney to drive future growth. The company now reaches more than 80% of connected TV (CTV) households in the U.S., significantly expanding the reach of its advertising.
The path to $3 trillion
Amazon has a market cap of roughly $2.32 trillion as of this writing, so it will only take a stock price increase of about 29% to boost its value to $3 trillion. According to Wall Street, Amazon is expected to generate revenue of $708 billion in 2025, resulting in a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Amazon would need revenue of roughly $914 billion annually to support a $3 trillion market cap.
Wall Street is currently forecasting Amazon's growth to be roughly 10% annually over the next five years. If the company achieves that target, it could achieve a $3 trillion market cap as soon as 2028. That might well be conservative, as Amazon has grown its annual revenue by 561% over the past decade, and by 13% in the most recent quarter, fueled by demand for cloud and AI services.
Furthermore, at 33 times earnings, Amazon trades at a slight premium compared with a multiple of 29 for the S&P 500 -- yet has generated stock price gains of 719% over the past 10 years, far exceeding the S&P 500, which rose just 202%. This makes a compelling case that Amazon stock is attractive at this price.
