NuScale Power (SMR 2.77%) is a nuclear energy specialist seeing explosive gains thanks to a catalyst that initially caught the market off guard. The company's share price roared nearly 320% higher over the last year as artificial intelligence (AI) emerged as a potentially massive performance driver for the business.
As a pioneer in small modular reactors (SMRs), NuScale could be well-positioned to win power contracts for AI data centers and other energy-intensive use cases. It's undoubtedly a very high-risk stock, but some scenarios could lead to it delivering huge returns.
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Can NuScale stock deliver 5x returns over the next five years?
With its second-quarter report, NuScale announced that revenue increased 710% year over year to reach $8.1 million. While that's very impressive growth on a relative scale, it also has to be viewed in the context of the company's roughly $10 billion market capitalization.
The result is also far less impressive when stacked against performance in the first quarter -- which saw the business post sales of $13.4 million. Smaller energy companies can see outsized levels of cyclicality when it comes to results, but the sequential quarterly sales decline raises questions about the growth thesis amid expansion trends in the broader AI infrastructure market.
Data centers for AI and other applications have enormously intensive power needs. While the near-term expansion of artificial intelligence will almost certainly see some unexpected twists and turns, the long-term outlook for AI technologies remains very promising.
NuScale and other nuclear energy specialists will likely see some powerful sales catalysts connected to rising demand driven by the ongoing buildout of AI infrastructure. With that dynamic in mind, it's not impossible that NuScale could turn a $10,000 investment into $50,000 over the next five years.
On the other hand, some very strong growth is already priced into the company's valuation even though its stock has pulled back roughly 30% from its peak. While the stock could certainly bound well above current levels over the next five years, expecting fivefold returns could be overly optimistic.
