The funny thing about valuing stocks is that despite all the intricate calculations and modeling you might do, you'll still end up with your own estimate, which is likely to differ from the estimates of others examining the same stock. Still, we keep trying to estimate the value of various stocks because, if we're a value investor, we want to buy shares for less than they seem to be worth, and if we're a growth investor, we may be trying to make sure we don't pay too much.
Here, then, is my prediction about three stocks that I think will be worth more than Tesla in 10 years.
Image source: Getty Images.
Tesla and its valuation
Let's first get an idea of Tesla's own valuation. Its market capitalization (or "market cap") was recently $1.1 trillion, reflecting the total value of all its shares. Judging by several valuation metrics, its shares are somewhat overvalued at recent levels:
|
Metric |
Recent |
Five-year Average |
|---|---|---|
|
12.90 |
11.20 | |
|
196.54 |
98.19 | |
|
183.29 |
76.89 |
Source: Morningstar.com as of Aug. 22, 2025.
Let's also look at its stock's growth rates:
|
Period |
Average Annual Gain |
|---|---|
|
Last 3 years |
2.57% |
|
Last 5 years |
18.56% |
|
Last 10 years |
35.46% |
|
Last 15 years |
44.55% |
Source: Morningstar.com as of Aug. 22, 2025.
Clearly, the stock's growth rate has been decelerating. We need to estimate where Tesla's value might be a decade hence, so let's assume an average annual growth rate of, say, 10%. It reflects returns from the past few years instead of the ones further back. And it also considers that, given Tesla's overvaluation today, the stock might pull back within the next year or two, thereby depressing the average annual gain.
So, with a current valuation of $1.1 trillion, in a decade, if Tesla's value grows at 10% annually, it should be worth around $2.85 trillion. Let's now look at a few stocks that might be worth more than that by 2035.
1. Costco
Let's start with Costco (COST +2.34%). It recently sported a market cap of $425 billion, and average annual growth rates between about 21% and 24% over the past three to 15 years. If it grows at 21% over the coming decade, it will end up with a market value a few dollars higher than our Tesla estimate of $2.85 trillion.
NASDAQ: COST
Key Data Points
That's quite close. It assumes that Costco's stock, which seems somewhat overvalued itself, will perform excellently and will maintain a premium valuation. (Costco's forward P/E was recently 47, above its five-year average of 40.)
How's Costco doing these days? Well, some worry about the effect of tariffs and inflation on the company, but though they are damaging, they could damage Costco less than its rivals. For example, Costco can keep profit margins very low while getting billions in revenue from membership fees.
2. Berkshire Hathaway
Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A +1.04%) (BRK.B +1.14%), is another possibility. It was recently valued at about $1.06 trillion, with average annual gains over the past three to 15 years of between 13% and nearly 18%. If it grows by an average of 11% annually over the coming decade, it could end up with a value of roughly $3 trillion.
NYSE: BRK.B
Key Data Points
The company has a lot going for it, as it encompasses dozens of wholly owned subsidiaries such as GEICO, Benjamin Moore, Dairy Queen, McLane, and the entire BNSF railroad, along with sizable chunks of other companies, such as Occidental Petroleum, American Express, Coca-Cola, and Bank of America.
Buffett built Berkshire to last, but he can't run it forever. Indeed, Buffett is stepping down at the end of the year, naming Greg Abel as his successor.
3. Netflix
Then there's Netflix (NFLX +2.60%), valued at $521 billion as of Aug. 26. Its average annual gain over the past five years is 20%, and over the past 15 years it's more than 32%. Like Costco, Netflix's shares seem at least a little overvalued, with its forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 48 well above its five-year average of 34. So there's a reasonable chance shares will retreat in the near term. (Shares pulled back 13% in July, for example.)
NASDAQ: NFLX
Key Data Points
Still, Netflix's long-term potential is great, as it keeps expanding globally and building its huge library of content. Netflix also has an advertising-supported membership tier now, too, which should expand its reach further while delivering ad revenue. Its leveraging of artificial intelligence (AI) could be another growth driver.
If Netflix can average annual gains of 20% over the coming decade, it can grow to a value of around $3.2 trillion.
These three companies have a lot of potential and could top Tesla's valuation within a decade. But forget Tesla and just focus on whichever of the companies interests you, digging deeper into their challenges and opportunities.
