I keep telling you that XRP (XRP 2.15%) looks overpriced. As of Sept. 1, the cryptocurrency that powers the RippleNet international payment system is up nearly 400% over the last year. Sure, I believe in XRP's long-term business prospects, but the digital coin has simply skyrocketed way too fast.
So I'm waiting for a price cut, which would let me buy XRP coins with a straight face again. Will that opportunity open up in September? I don't think so, but let's take a look.
A quick XRP timeline
XRP's chart soared from roughly $0.50 to more than $2.50 per coin in November 2024. Since then, it has bounced back and forth between $2.00 and $3.50.
Many of the big jumps and price cuts along the way were based on macroeconomic swings, but others were the result of XRP-specific news.
The long-running legal challenge from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has finally been settled, ending in a $125 million fine paid by Ripple Labs to the SEC. Each step along the way to this ending sent shock waves through XRP's price chart, though the market-moving effects diminished over time.
Ripple launched the RLUSD (RLUSD -0.01%) stablecoin in December 2024, followed by a stablecoin-based payment demonstration last week. XRP investors aren't sure what to make of this alternative payment solution, though Ripple says the two coins will provide a smoother user experience when used together.
And you know the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) the SEC approved for Bitcoin (BTC 0.51%) and Ethereum (ETH 0.11%) investors last year? XRP is one of many altcoins in line for their own ETF approvals, with 16 fund managers filing applications for XRP ETFs. The SEC keeps delaying its decisions, most recently punting several XRP ETF assessments to mid-October. If and when these funds (or at least some of them) get the SEC's rubber-stamp approval, the event could open up the door for institutional investors to take this cryptocurrency seriously.
So XRP's new price level has been both volatile and robust, weirdly enough. There are price swings aplenty, but they have largely canceled each other out in 2025.
Regulation, rivals, and the headache of going global
Yes, most of the market-moving stuff in the XRP sphere is pretty bullish. The coin is earning market respect, chasing away the SEC lawsuit's dark clouds, and building a better payment system.
But the crypto market already baked all of these events into XRP's current price -- and I think the price boost included many years of future projections. At the same time, XRP investors don't seem to worry a lot about the cryptocurrency's risks.
Potential rivals include the wealth-storage heft of Bitcoin and the smart contract flexibility of Ethereum. Many stablecoins could also provide the foundation for an international payment system, especially large ones such as Tether and USDC. Established border-crossing payment managers like the SWIFT messaging system and PayPal's (PYPL -0.35%) Hyperwallet are undoubtedly working hard behind the scenes to offer faster and cheaper transactions -- what if one of them gets it right?
The American market is clearing up, but what about the rest of the world? Being an inherently international project, XRP must always navigate the legal and financial complexity of doing business across nearly 200 countries. That includes a strict ban in China and deep uncertainty in India, creating more problems than opportunities in two of the world's largest economies.
Those are just XRP's greatest challenges off the top of my head. Other issues exist and more will surely arise over time. The cryptocurrency's lofty price suggests that XRP's market makers aren't concerned about any of this uncertainty.
Image source: Getty Images.
My approach: Small stakes, watchful eyes
Here's the thing: XRP's market support could fall away at any given moment, especially if one of its big risks suddenly materializes. I don't want to have a heavy XRP investment if the SEC simply says "no, thank you" to XRP ETFs. A small XRP stake (or none at all) will also feel better when a powerful service rival emerges on the global stage. These events may be unlikely, but they're not impossible.
So I'm nervous about XRP's pricing, but not necessarily in the short term. A new top-quality international payment service probably won't arrive without warning, and the SEC decision isn't due until October. Many risks will take time to play out. They're still there, though.
Therefore, I don't expect a big XRP price drop in September -- just more of the same volatility you've seen so far in 2025. XRP is simply not my favorite cryptocurrency to buy today, with limited upside and unpredictable price swings.
