What's the correct take on XRP (XRP +0.07%) right now? If you're the kind of person who sees the proverbial glass of water as half-empty, you'll likely note that the digital token has fallen by a double-digit percentage in recent weeks. If you see the glass of water as half-full, you'll probably emphasize that XRP's price has still skyrocketed more than 5x over the past 12 months despite the pullback.
Probably the best perspective, though, is to focus on the future. More water could soon be poured into the glass representing this popular cryptocurrency, with major regulatory decisions on the way. Should you buy XRP before October?
Image source: Getty Images.
Key SEC decisions in October
As things stand right now, only two cryptocurrencies can be owned by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) -- Bitcoin (BTC 0.24%) and Ethereum (ETH 1.89%). However, that could change in a matter of weeks. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expects to make decisions on several pending XRP spot ETF applications during October.
First on the calendar is Grayscale's bid to convert its XRP Trust into a spot ETF, with the SEC planning to finalize its ruling by Oct. 18, 2025. Grayscale launched its XRP Trust in September 2024. It currently has assets under management of nearly $17.4 million and owns 301,500 shares of XRP.
The SEC's deadline for ruling on the 21Shares XRP ETF application is Oct. 19, 2025. 21Shares listed the first physically backed crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) in 2018. The deadline for a decision on the Bitwise XRP ETF application comes only one day after the 21Shares deadline.
Regulators at the SEC are going to be busy bees in October. They're also reviewing an application for the Canary Capital XRP ETF, with a decision expected by Oct. 24, 2025. Additional rulings on WisdomTree's, Franklin Templeton's, and CoinShares' XRP ETFs have a deadline of Oct. 25.
How much could XRP surge?
The logic behind why potential SEC approvals of these spot ETFs could boost XRP's price is straightforward. If they get the regulatory green light, most of these ETFs will aggressively buy XRP. This should create upward pressure on XRP's price, thanks to the law of supply and demand.
But just how much could XRP surge? It's impossible to know for sure. However, we can look at how the early spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum impacted their respective prices to perhaps get a sense of what might happen with XRP.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
On Oct. 19, 2021, the ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO 0.27%) launched in the U.S. The price of Bitcoin inched up less than 1% that day, but rose another 4% on the following day. On July 23, 2024, several Ethereum spot ETFs began trading. Ethereum's price fell by 10% over the next few days.
Does this mean investors shouldn't buy XRP before October? Not necessarily. It's important to note that Bitcoin's price soared nearly 50% in the three weeks leading up to the launch of its first spot ETF. Anticipation about the potential roll-outs of XRP spot ETFs might push XRP's price higher beforehand, too.
For what it's worth, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg also thinks XRP ETFs could be a bigger deal than Ethereum ETFs. McClurg recently stated in an interview on Paul Barron's XRP podcast that XRP's lack of staking rewards could be an advantage to its spot ETFs because investors won't forego yield by putting their money in the funds.
Another potential catalyst on the way
Will it be too late to jump on the XRP bandwagon if you don't buy the digital token before October? Nope. Another potential catalyst is likely on the way.
President Trump signed an executive order on Aug. 7, 2025, that directed the U.S. Secretary of Labor to reconsider prohibitions about 401(k) plans owning alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies. Secretary of Labor Lori Michelle Chavez-DeRemer has 180 days from the signing of the order to finish the task. A decision to open up 401(k) plans to crypto just might spark a rally for XRP early next year.
