Snowflake (SNOW 4.32%) delivered a cleaner, stronger quarter. The artificial intelligence (AI) data cloud company's fiscal second-quarter product revenue rose 32% year over year to $1.09 billion, net revenue retention (NRR) ticked up to 125%, and large-customer metrics improved. Guidance moved higher, too. These are the right kinds of signals when investors are looking for confirmation that the company's extraordinary growth story remains intact.
The growth stock surged following the report in late August. Though shares have given back some of their gains since the report, they are still up about 14%, putting shares up more than 45% year to date. The stock's post-earnings surge makes sense given the strong results the company posted. But if you zoom out and consider the stock in the context of its long-term potential, there's reason to be concerned. The valuation, today, bakes near-perfection -- a high bar for a business that still runs sizable GAAP losses and relies on significant non-GAAP add-backs to show profitability. That mismatch is why the shares remain priced too richly, despite a legitimately better quarter.
Image source: Getty Images.
Results improved where it mattered
Revenue trends reaccelerated. After growing product revenue 26% in fiscal Q1, Snowflake accelerated to 32% in Q2 as consumption picked up. Management raised full-year product revenue guidance to about $4.4 billion (27% growth) and guided Q3 product revenue to $1.125-$1.130 billion (25% to 26% growth), implying continued momentum. The customer base deepened as $1 million-plus customers reached 654, and remaining performance obligations (RPO), a leading indicator for the company's revenue growth potential, hit $6.9 billion, up 33% year over year. Those are impressive markers.
But perhaps the most exciting area of momentum at Snowflake is in AI.
"Our progress with AI has been remarkable," explained Snowflake CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy in the company's fiscal second-quarter earnings release.
Ramaswamy continued:
Today, AI is a core reason why customers are choosing Snowflake, influencing nearly 50% of new logos won in Q2. And once they are on our platform, AI becomes a cornerstone of their strategy, powering 25% of all deployed use cases with over 6,100 accounts using Snowflake's AI every week.
Profitability metrics also made progress. GAAP net loss narrowed to $298 million in Q2 from $430 million in Q1, and it improved year over year versus a $317 million loss in last year's Q2. Non-GAAP operating margin was 11%, up from 9% in Q1.
These are steps in the right direction, but we're still talking big GAAP losses.
Additionally, it's worth noting that, on a first-half basis, GAAP net loss still widened versus last year -- and stock-based compensation (SBC) remains massive: $845 million in the first six months.
Sure, Snowflake deserves credit for the Q2 cleanup. But investors should still track whether these improvements hold through the second half of the year. Additionally, there's one key profitability metric moving in the wrong direction: free cash flow. Free cash flow in fiscal Q2 was about $58 million, down from $183 million in fiscal Q1 and $59 million in the year-ago quarter.
Valuation still leaves little room for error
Even after the operational gains, Snowflake's valuation remains eye-popping. Its market capitalization is now roughly $77 billion -- a massive figure for a company still running losses. That price tag equates to about 19 times sales, compared with roughly 8 times sales for Alphabet and about 13 times sales for Microsoft. In absolute terms, Alphabet's market cap is about $2.8 trillion, and Microsoft's exceeds $3.8 trillion--numbers that dwarf Snowflake but come with far stronger cash flow and profitability foundations, as well as diversified sources of revenue at each company. Snowflake's sky-high price-to-sales multiple means investors are pricing in near-perfect execution, including margin gains and sustained growth, with little room for error.
Bulls can counter that Snowflake's data cloud is sticky and expanding; 125% NRR, rapid growth in $1 million-plus customers, and stronger AI-related usage are hard to dismiss. Yes, the franchise is excellent. The question, however, is price versus economics. Significant GAAP losses, dilution from SBC, and a consumption model that can wobble with macro or optimization cycles all argue for a margin of safety. Today's multiples don't offer one.
What would change my mind? Sustained acceleration with improving GAAP profitability and free cash flow. If Snowflake can compound product revenue while expanding GAAP margins in 2026, the valuation case gets stronger. Until then, I'd wait, hoping for a better price.
Yes, Q2 was the kind of quarter Snowflake needed in order to keep the bulls around, featuring a business reacceleration, narrower losses, and higher guidance. The business is moving the right way. The stock, however, just doesn't leave enough wiggle room for things to go wrong from time to time -- whether they're execution related or macro. For investors, therefore, patience looks like the most prudent path when it comes to considering buying shares.
