Tesla (TSLA 0.98%) CEO Elon Musk spent years hyping the company's robotaxis, leading up to the autonomous electric vehicles' launch in Austin, Texas, in June.
Musk said a robotaxi network would make Tesla the most valuable company in the world, and described fleets of autonomous Teslas gradually taking over the world. He unveiled the autonomous "Cybercab" at a splashy event last October, and he's proposed that individual Tesla owners would be able to cash in on the emerging technology, renting out their vehicles as autonomous ridesharing vehicles when they're not using them. Tesla backers like Ark Invest's Cathie Wood have argued that robotaxis would send the company's valuation to $5 trillion.
However, since Tesla's launch of a small robotaxi fleet in Austin, which expanded from an initial number of 10 to 20 in June to 30 by late August, Musk has been rather quiet about the new business.
He also made a statement earlier this month that suggests he's more focused on Tesla's next big thing, implying that the hype around robotaxis could be a thing of the past. In a post on his social media platform X, Musk said that "80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus," referring to the company's autonomous robot that's still in development.
It's unclear what timeline Musk has in mind for that, but based on that post, he clearly thinks that Optimus will one day dwarf the value of both Tesla's core EV business and the emerging robotaxi business.
Image source: Tesla.
Promises, promises
Even Tesla bulls know by now that Musk's statements are best taken with a grain of salt. It's hard to know if the quote above about Optimus was based on any real forecasting or just on his enthusiasm and confidence in the new technology.
Though it frustrates Musk's critics, part of his talent as a CEO is to perform a sort of sleight-of-hand where he distracts investors from current problems with the company by making promises about the future. Similarly, the bull case for Tesla seems to be constantly changing. At the start of the year, Musk's alliance with President Donald Trump drove the stock to double in price in just a few months before it pulled back on subsequent backlash against Musk and Tesla over Musk's apparent falling out with Trump.
Over the last week, Tesla stock has been rallying again despite reports that its market share in EVs has fallen to its lowest point in the U.S. since 2017, at 38% of total EV sales, showing it may be losing the market it once defined.
Musk's promises around robotics and his recent purchase of $1 billion worth of stock seem to have overcome any doubts (for now) and helped fuel recent gains. Tesla also received permission from Nevada to test its robotaxis in that state.
What's next for Tesla's robotaxis
Musk did promote the robotaxi launch in the company's July earnings call, and noted that it's seeking regulatory clearance in the Bay Area, Arizona, Florida, and Nevada.
He also predicted that Tesla would offer autonomous ride-hailing to half the U.S. population by the end of the year. However, now that it's already September, it seems unlikely that it will happen.
The robotaxi went live in the Bay Area on Sept. 4, though rides will come with a safety driver present, meaning they aren't fully autonomous. Tesla does not yet have the permit to operate autonomous vehicles without a driver.
For now, the market opportunity for robotaxis is massive, but Tesla is far from the only competitor here. Alphabet's Waymo remains the leader here, and other deep-pocketed operators are getting in the mix as Amazon's Zoox just launched in Las Vegas.
At this point, it's too soon to judge the impact the robotaxi will have, but it will almost certainly take longer to move the revenue needle than Musk has forecast. Meanwhile, statements like the one above on Optimus may help pump the stock, but they ultimately do a disservice to investors.
Currently, Tesla trades at a sky-high price-to-earnings ratio close to 200, and analysts expect both revenue and profits to fall this year.
Musk may have more bold predictions up his sleeve, but at some point, Tesla is going to have to back them up with real business results. At its current valuation and trajectory, the risk/reward in Tesla stock doesn't seem worth it.
