BigBear.ai (BBAI 6.64%) has taken investors on a rollercoaster ride in 2025. The good news, though, is that they're probably enjoying the ride these days. Shares of the artificial intelligence (AI) software company are up more than 70% year to date.
Will BigBear.ai's momentum continue? Maybe. However, I think investors can do better. I predict that two stocks will be worth more than BigBear.ai five years from now.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Diebold Nixdorf
Diebold Nixdorf (DBD 0.80%) doesn't get the amount of attention from investors that BigBear.ai receives. However, it was recently named as one of the world's best companies by TIME and Statista.
Many of the biggest companies in the world know Diebold Nixdorf well, too. The Ohio-based technology company's customer base includes the majority of the top 100 global financial institutions and top 25 global retailers. Diebold Nixdorf sells cash recyclers, cash dispensers, teller automation, and kiosks to banks. Its software applications also help retailers improve their checkout processes.
NYSE: DBD
Key Data Points
Diebold Nixdorf's market cap currently stands at a little over $2 billion. That's well below BigBear.ai's market cap of $2.9 billion. However, I think Diebold Nixdorf has what it takes to vault past BigBear.ai.
For one thing, BigBear.ai's revenue plunged 18% year over year in the second quarter of 2025. While Diebold Nixdorf's revenue also fell, the decline was only 2.6%. Importantly, the company's revenue jumped 9% from the first quarter of 2025.
Diebold Nixdorf also ended Q2 with a backlog of around $980 million. It has also generated three consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow. By comparison, BigBear.ai reported a backlog of $380 million at the end of Q2. And the AI software developer is nowhere near delivering positive free cash flow.
Valuation is another key consideration. BigBear.ai has a lofty price-to-sales ratio of 14.4. Diebold Nixdorf's shares trade at only 0.59 times sales.
Sure, Diebold Nixdorf doesn't have the magical two letters "AI" in its name like BigBear.ai does. However, the company is nonetheless focused on AI. As a case in point, its Vynamic Smart Vision AI-powered shrink reduction technology recently won France's LSA Tech AI for Business award.
2. Recursion Pharmaceuticals
I'll readily admit that predicting that Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX 5.89%) will be bigger than BigBear.ai five years from now requires stepping out on a limb quite a bit. There's a sizable gap between Recursion's and BigBear.ai's market caps. Even more daunting, though, is that Recursion's main source of revenue right now is its collaboration agreements with bigger partners.
So why am I picking Recursion over BigBear.ai? Mainly because I think the company's AI-driven drug discovery and development approach will be a huge winner.
NASDAQ: RXRX
Key Data Points
A whopping 90% of drugs flop in clinical trials using traditional drug discovery methods. And that's often after at least a decade of development and $2 billion in costs. Recursion's use of AI to identify promising targets and design molecules to treat diseases could change those dynamics. This process can rapidly evaluate hundreds of potential candidates and then pick the most promising ones to advance into clinical testing.
Recursion already has three experimental cancer therapies in phase 1 and 2 development. It's also evaluating another candidate in early stage studies targeting familial adenomatous polyposis, a rare genetic disease.
The company is attracting interest from big partners, too. Roche (RHHBY 0.18%), Sanofi (SNY +0.67%), Bayer (OTC: BAYR.Y), and Merck KgAA (MKGAF 0.40%) (the German drugmaker -- not the U.S.-based Merck (MRK 0.01%)) have teamed up with Recursion so far. I wouldn't be surprised if more large biopharmaceutical companies seek to collaborate with Recursion in the future.
Recursion also has an even bigger partner. Nvidia (NVDA 0.61%) owns roughly 7.7 million shares of the AI-focused biotech company.
Maybe my prediction about Recursion will fall flat on its face. However, I nonetheless think there's a good chance that this innovator will be worth more than BigBear.ai in five years if its pipeline programs fare well.
